Democratic fears grow over third-party candidates

Democrats are raising concerns over efforts to recruit third-party candidates in 2024 amid fears they could take votes away from President Biden’s reelection. 

The bipartisan group “No Labels” has been working toward building the foundation to launch a “unity ticket” to run as an option separate from Democrats or Republicans as polls show a rematch between Biden and former President Trump is likely. And Cornel West, a progressive activist, became the first relatively well-known third-party candidate to enter the race.

The developments come as polling shows Americans souring on the prospect of a Biden-Trump rematch. A NewsNation/DDHQ poll released this week found 49 percent of respondents said it was somewhat or very likely they would consider voting for a third-party candidate in 2024 if Trump and Biden were the nominees. 

Meanwhile, an NBC News poll released last month found 70 percent of Americans said they did not want Biden to run for president next year, while 60 percent say they do not want Trump to run for president in 2024. 

“It’s almost universal,” said former Rep. Fred Upton (R-Mich.), who is involved with No Labels. “People are just saying ‘350 million Americans, can’t we have a different match?’”

Biden and Trump have been grappling with their separate sets of issues as they embark on the 2024 campaign cycle. Biden, 80, and Trump, 76, have both faced questions over their age — particularly Biden, who would be 86 years old if he were to complete a second term. 

Meanwhile, Trump, who is handily leading the Republican primary field, is facing his second indictment in three months. The Justice Department on Friday revealed Trump had been charged with 37 counts connected to the mishandling of records at Mar-a-Lago in addition to his efforts to block the government from recovering the documents.

West has used his candidacy to directly address frustrations over both candidates. In his launch video, West, a member of the People’s Party, labeled Biden a “milquetoast neoliberal” and called Trump a “neofascist.” 

In an interview with Semafor on Friday, West addressed Democrats’ concern over third-party campaigns. 

"If the Democrats don't want third-party candidates like myself, why don't you put poor and working people, here and abroad, at the center of your vision? Biden was a caretaker president for four years,” West told the outlet.

“Democrats can’t have caretaker presidents forever,” he added. “If the only alternative to neoliberalism is neofascism, that is a catastrophe, and you're still going to have fascism sooner or later. You need to confront fascism with vision, with passion; you need to re-channel the insecurities and fears of American citizens. That’s how you undercut fascism, internally."

While West’s chances of being elected president are slim, his candidacy, like past third-party bids, could impact the results of the election 

Amy Walter, the editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, responded to news of West’s candidacy on Twitter by asking if his candidacy was more threatening to Biden than Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s. 

In an interview on Fox News on Wednesday, veteran GOP pollster Kellyanne Conway said the answer to Walter’s question was “yes.” 

“It’s very likely,” Conway told the network. “Amy Walter is onto something, and I’ll tell you why: Even if you don’t become president, you, as a third-party candidate spoiler, can decide who is the president.”

Ross Perot and Ralph Nader are two of the most notable examples of third-party candidates seen as playing deciding factors in elections. In 1992, Perot won roughly 19 percent of the vote and did not win any electoral votes. But many Republicans were quick to call him a spoiler. In 2000, Nader faced claims he played spoiler after former President George W. Bush narrowly defeated former Vice President Al Gore. Green Party candidate Jill Stein also faced allegations that her candidacy helped elect Trump in 2016 despite only winning roughly 1 percent of the popular vote. 

“Those of us who lived in and worked in the 2016 election, this gives most of us political PTSD,” said Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist and a senior visiting fellow at the center-left think tank Third Way. 

“Because if you think about the third-party activities that went on in the 2016 election, we now know in retrospect that literally played a significant role in costing perhaps the most qualified person to ever run for the office,” he said. “And we know what came as a result of that, a right-wing activist court that’s changed the footprint of this country forever.” 

Groups like Third Way and the Lincoln Project, a group critical of the state of the GOP under Trump, have come out strongly against the prospect of a third-party candidate. The groups have particularly taken aim at No Labels. 

“It is a guaranteed spoiler and the risk is all on the Democratic side,” said Jim Kessler, executive vice president for policy at Third Way. “It’s notable that Democrats are concerned about No Label’s third-party bid and no Republican is concerned, at least no Republican who is a Trump partisan or would support another Republican nominee. All of that concern is on the Democratic side.”

“Democrats rely far more on moderate and Independent voters than Republicans in national elections,” he added. 

According to a Third Way memo released this week, the group said No Label’s polling data showed a “moderate independent candidate” garnering 20 percent of the vote, while Biden came in at 28 percent and Trump came in at 33 percent. No Labels responded with a memo of its own, noting No Label's polling data also found that 18 percent of voters said they “didn’t know” or were “unsure” of who they would vote for. 

No Labels has maintained a third-party bid is viable, citing polling that shows voters do not want a Trump vs. Biden rematch. The group says its polling shows 59 percent of voters say they would consider a moderate, independent ticket in 2024 if Trump and Biden are the nominees. The group is on the ballot in Arizona, Alaska, Colorado and Oregon. 

The group has faced some backlash, most recently in Maine, where the secretary of state accused No Labels of misleading voters in its effort to get on the state’s ballot. No Labels said in a statement in response to a cease-and-desist letter from Maine election officials that the organizers were given “crystal-clear instructions” on asking voters to change their party affiliation.

Despite the controversy, the group has well-known backers from both sides of the aisle— including former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) and civil rights leader Ben Chavis, who both serve as national co-chairmen. Former Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) is the group’s founding chairman. Former Rep. Joe Cunningham (D-S.C.) has also spoken out in support of the group. 

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who has a 12-year relationship with the group, has often been floated as a potential pick to lead the group’s unity ticket. Manchin has not ruled out a 2024 presidential run. 

However, the group has yet to publicly float any candidates and has maintained that its priority is getting on the ballot in all 50 states. 

“Our eye on the ball right now is getting on the states’ ballots,” Upton said, predicting that number will be close to 10 by the end of June. 

Upton said he believes the group’s goal of getting on the ballot in all 50 states is “achievable,” but he pushed back on the notion that a third-party bid would benefit Trump. 

“I was actually with President Bush 41 the day he got the call from Ross Perot that he was running, and it was rather deflating, to say the least,” Upton said. “Unlike Perot, they’re really taking from both sides.”