Govt says Biparjoy ‘still on path for tomorrow’ as cyclone set to recurve northeastward
Cyclone Biparjoy, which is expected to make landfall tomorrow (June 15) between Keti Bandar in Sindh and Kutch in Indian Gujarat, was at a distance of 340km from Karachi on Wednesday as it moved further north and was expected to recurve north-northeastward.
Sardar Sarfraz, chief meteorologist at the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), said the cyclone had moved north-northwestward during the last six hours.
Key developments
- Sherry Rehman says public safety govt’s first priority; says people in at-risk areas would be forced to evacuate as there is “no other option”
- Power minister says cyclone has disrupted RLNG supply, which will affect electricity supply
- CAA refutes reports of airport closing, warns of possible disruption in flight schedules
- Sindh minister Sharjeel Memon says 64,107 people have been evacuated from vulnerable areas
- India’s weather office warns of severe damage
The latest alert issued by the PMD said the cyclone was now at a distance of 340km south-southwest of Karachi, 355km south-southwest Thatta and 275km south-southwest of Keti Bandar.
“Maximum sustained surface winds are 150-160km/hour, gusts 180km/hour around the system centre and sea conditions being phenomenal around the system centre with maximum wave height [of] 30 feet,” the alert said.
It added that the “very severe cyclonic storm” was now likely to recurve north- northeastward and cross between Keti Bandar and the Indian Gujarat coast on June 15, packing winds of 100-120km/h.
It further said that widespread wind-dust/thunderstorm and rain were likely in Sindh’s Thatta, Sujawal, Badin, Tharparker, Mirpurkhas and Umerkot districts during June 14-17. Likewise, heavy rainfall and squally winds were likely in Karachi, Hyderabad, Tando Muhammad Khan, Tando Allayar, Shaheed Benazirabad and Sanghar districts from June 14-16 while dust/thunderstorm and isolated heavy falls were expected in Balochistan’s Hub and Lasbela districts during this time.
Zoom Earth said Biparjoy would “recurve sharply northeastward along the northwestern edge of the subtropical ridge and will approach the India-Pakistan border area with significant weakening after 24 hours due to increased frictional effects”.
“After 36 hours when the system makes landfall, Biparjoy will rapidly weaken and is expected to dissipate in three days over northwest India,” it said.
Power minister warns of increased electricity load-shedding
Energy Minister Khurram Dastgir Khan alerted citizens about a “temporary decline in RLNG-based (Re-Gasified Liquefied Natural Gas-based) electricity generation and temporary increase in load-shedding” due to the cyclone disrupting RLNG shipping to Pakistan.
In a tweet, he said, “We are ensuring full fuel supplies to K-Electric to maintain routine [electricity] supply to Karachi citizens.”
‘No other option’, Rehman says on evacuations
Addressing a press conference in Islamabad alongside National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) Chairman Lt-Gen Inam Haider Malik, Climate Change Minister Sherry Rehman said Biparjoy was following the path that had been predicted.
She noted that the storm would not make direct landfall in Karachi but “tidal waves, rainfall and duststorms” were expected in the city.
“It seems Biparjoy is going northeast and it seems it will take a hard right even further to the east which means it will go past the megacity of Karachi,” she said.
Noting that “some friends are saying its intensity has decreased”, Rehman said, “That might be the case but when it […] comes to landmass, its effects are also maximised.”
The minister asserted that the government had been taking steps to tackle the effects of the cyclone, adding that today was “a buffer day” to complete any remaining preparations.
She highlighted that 75 relief camps had been set up to accommodate those who were evacuated, and most of them were places with stable roofs, such as schools and colleges.
Rehman reiterated that people’s hesitation to evacuate and panic were natural and they were “leaving space for it”. However, she said people in at-risk areas would be forced to evacuate as there was “no [other] option”.
Emphasising that public safety was the government’s first priority, the minister recalled there were reports of fishermen heading back to the sea and urged the public to stay away from the coastline.
“I want to take note of the fact that the areas that will face the brunt of the storm are the same areas that suffered a major impact of the 2022 floods,” Rehman said.
Meanwhile, the NDMA chairman said Biparjoy’s projected landfall, as of 11am, was between the Keti Bandar and the Indian Gujarat coast. “It can make landfall at any time between tomorrow morning and afternoon,” Malik added.
In a scenario where more areas than expected were impacted by the storm and inundated, he said there would be a “second stage relocation”.
In a separate address while speaking on the floor of the National Assembly, Rehman noted that Karachi’s Defence Housing Authority (DHA) had begun voluntary evacuations and advised citizens to avoid leaving their belongings outside without securing them.
“Especially those near Seaview, in DHA and Darakshan, absolutely do not leave your pets, livestock and people outside. Tomorrow, you have to wait for landfall because the cyclonic winds can attain any velocity,” she said.
Rehman highlighted that the first step was to secure solar panels installed on roofs and advised citizens to remain cognisant of electricity poles. Asking those who were being evacuated to cooperate with the state authorities and staff, she urged them to not return to their homes until authorities told them to do so.
‘Follow govt guidelines and advice’
Taking to Twitter earlier in the day, Rehman said the cyclone was “still on path for tomorrow” as she urged citizens to stay calm and vigilant.
“Follow government guidelines and advice. Every department concerned is working round the clock to reduce public exposure and risk. Saving lives is our first priority. All measures are in place so please cooperate,” she said.
She also shared a list of evacuation centres in Sindh for “high impact districts”.
The minister also shared the predicted heights for the first and second high tides in a day from June 13-17 at four coastal points across Sindh — Karachi, Keti Bandar, Sir Creek and Gharo.
Urging citizens to stay away from coastal areas, beaches, creeks and fishing wharves, she said, “Tidal waves can cause damage, sudden flooding and pose serious risks to small crafts that are still venturing out.
“Caution has to be exercised until the risk is over,” Rehman added.
Early on Wednesday, the minister had said that while panicking was understandable and human nature, it was important to “move with calm and caution”.
“Evacuations are painful, stressful and hard to embark on but we must insist on them in areas where see #CycloneBiparjoy making landfall. For coastal areas like Keti Bandar evacuations are not optional,” she said.
Rehman also shared a clip of her appearance on Geo News programme Aaj Shahzeb Khanzada Kay Sath from last night, in which she reiterated the same.
She said that the cyclone would hit Keti Bandar on June 15, adding that evacuating citizens was imperative. She recognised that it was “very painful” for people but evacuating was necessary.
Khanzada then pointed out that reports suggest some people in Keti Bandar was resisting evacuation and asked if authorities would use force.
“Yes, it will have to be done,” she said, adding that the government had responsibilities and use of force was not ideal. She said it was better to save lives rather than lift dead bodies.
“There is no option. And if they resist, the government’s directives are that evacuations are necessary […] there is no doubt about Keti Bandar, it will have to be done,” she said.
Lack of clarity over evacuations in Karachi’s DHA
Meanwhile, there was a lack of clarity over evacuations in Karachi’s Defence Housing Authority (DHA).
In a tweet in the early hours of Wednesday, safety and security adviser Norbert Almeida said the DHA has ordered those residing on the ground floor of Seaview Apartments to evacuate the building today.
He said, “So just met with DHA Vigilance Rangers and Police combined team who have come to Seaview Apartments ringing doorbell.
“Their message, order is only for Ground Floor residents to leave during the day of June 14, 2023,” he added.
When contacted by Dawn.com, the DHA helpline said they were not in a position to confirm the matter but also reiterated that the evacuations were optional for now.
A tweet from the DHA’s official Twitter account also said that it “urged” citizens of “high-alert areas” to evacuate their homes.
It said, “Rising high tides pose an imminent threat to Karachi. Residents residing in Abdul Sattar Edhi Avenues and Do Darya are urged to evacuate and follow DHA Karachi’s instructions.”
Earlier today, the DHA’s helpline said that “alerts have been issued to all the residents to evacuate if they wish to”. Upon asking if the evacuations were mandatory, the helpline said that that was not the case for now.
It further said that relief camps have been set up in case residents faced transport issues or could not go to a relative’s house for shelter.
The helpline said residents could either go to the relief camps on their own or the authority could facilitate them when the need arose.
SSP South Syed Asad Raza also told Dawn.com that there were no plans as yet of carrying out forced evacuations in DHA.
On the other hand, the authority’s Twitter handle had said late on Tuesday that voluntary evacuations had started for the residents of Chota Bukhari, Chota Shahbaz, Nishat, Seaview Apartments, and Darkshan.
It said that forced evacuations would start from today, adding that teams would be accompanied by police officials and a letter signed by the deputy commissioner.
CAA refutes reports of airport closing
In an official statement, the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) refuted reports of Karachi’s Jinnah International Airport being closed due to the approaching cyclone.
It said, “In the case of prediction of bad weather, safety measures are taken at the airport as per the set SOPs. Keeping the pilots continuously informed about the wind speed and the weather is a routine matter.
“In unusual circumstances, pilots decide on the nearest suitable destination for take-off or landing by considering the terrain and weather conditions,” the CAA added.
The authority said it has already issued a notice to the pilots and airlines urging them to be cautious regarding the matter.
However, the CAA warned the citizens that flight schedules could be disrupted by the airlines in case of bad weather.
More than 60,000 evacuated from vulnerable areas, says Sindh minister
Sindh Information Minister Sharjeel Inam Memon said a total of 64,107 people had been evacuated from “vulnerable areas”.
He shared district-wise figures of the evacuations as of 10am today, according to which 86.23 per cent of the people who needed to be evacuated had been moved to a safer location.
The PPP minister said the provincial government was still evacuating more citizens and his party’s elected representatives were available on the ground along with the provincial administration.
Separately, the United Nations said it would help Pakistan and India in dealing with the impacts of the approaching cyclone Biparjoy, the state-run Radio Pakistan reported.
It added that UN Spokesperson Stephane Dujarric gave the assurance while responding to a question at a regular briefing in New York. He said the UN teams in India, Pakistan and other countries were tracking the storm and doing whatever they could to prepare for the aftermath.
India’s weather office warns of severe damage
India’s weather department said roads will be inundated along parts of the country’s western coast and thatched houses were likely to be destroyed.
It said Biparjoy was situated about 280km from Jakhau Port in Gujarat and was expected to make landfall around Thursday evening.
“As of now, our forecast is it will cross as a very severe cyclonic storm. After crossing, its intensity will fall and become a cyclonic storm and depression,” Manorama Mohanty, the Gujarat director of the India Meteorological Department (IMD), told reporters.
Meteorologists said the cyclone packed winds with maximum sustained speeds of 125-135 km (78-84 miles) per hour, gusting up to 150 km (93 miles) per hour, and warned high tides in the Arabian Sea could inundate low-lying areas along the coasts during the landfall.
Temporary thatched houses could be completely destroyed while standing crops, plantations and roads were expected to face major damage, the IMD said in a statement, adding that railways could also face disruption.
“Coastal districts of Gujarat have started receiving heavy rainfall,” a senior official with the state-run IMD said.
“From Wednesday evening, the intensity of rainfall and wind speed would increase. On Thursday, extremely heavy rainfall is expected. Some districts could get more than 200 mm rainfall on Thursday.”
Eight districts in coastal Gujarat are expected to be affected, the state government said. Fishing has been suspended until Friday and schools have declared holidays.
Many offshore oil installations and major ports, which line up the coasts in Gujarat have been forced to suspend operations.
“We have evacuated more than 45,000 people so far. The evacuation operations will continue till today (Wednesday) evening, mainly in Kutch,” said Kamal Dayani, a senior official in the Gujarat state government.
Additional input from Reuters and Imtiaz Ali