MLB Best Bet: Expect Lots of Runs in Angels-Rangers
The Rangers host the Angels for the third of a four-game series Wednesday night at Globe Life Field, and just like on Monday we are looking at the over.
When we cashed the over on Monday, the total reached 16 in extra innings. We felt the over was the call because of how strong the Rangers are vs. lefthanded pitching. Well, guess what? There’s another lefty on the bump for the Angels tonight – Reid Detmers.
Detmers has a 4.79 ERA this season, and his hard-hit and average exit velocity allowed are in the bottom 23% of the league. Meanwhile the Rangers -- who have scored the most runs per game this season (6.25) are especially dominant vs. lefties. They are top five in the league in BA, OPB, OPS and SLG. When the Rangers faced Detmers in May, Detmers allowed seven hits and three earned runs and lasted only four innings.
But it gets even better.
The Rangers will start lefty Andrew Heaney -- the weakest link in their starting rotation -- and the Angels also are excellent vs lefties. They are top eight in BA, OBP, OBP and SLG when facing southpaws. Heaney has allowed an average exit velocity and barrel rate in the bottom 33% of the league, and has logged a 4.14 ERA. He has allowed 10 hits and six earned runs across two starts (eight innings pitched).
A lineup with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani could certainly spell trouble for the Rangers tonight -- especially when you figure that Texas owns one of the league’s worst bullpens with an ERA of 4.41.
The Angels took the first two games of this series, and I expect another battle tonight between the division rivals.
Games at Globe Life are averaging 10.97 runs this season. With the total set at 9.5 and very little juice at -105, we can’t pass it up. It’s gone over in both games this week, and tonight will be the third.
The Bet: Angels-Rangers Over 9.5 runs (-105)
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