Betting On These MLB Pitches Has Been Losing Proposition

A lot of bettors might get into the habit of backing a pitcher simply because of the name on the back of the jersey.

This is a dangerous game since not only can a well-known pitcher be in a down month or season, but he also might not have the bullpen and bat support needed to record wins.

Here are some of the biggest-name-pitchers costing you the most money so far this 2023 Major League Baseball season.

We’ll use units lost as a measure. One unit usually is equal to one percent of your bankroll — the amount of money you set aside for sports betting. Everyone’s bankroll is different. If your bankroll is $1,000, one unit would be $10 or 1%.

Miami Marlins’ Sandy Alcantara -5.4 units (If your unit size is $10 and you bet on Alcantara every start, you would be down $54).
The 2022 National League Cy Young winner has struggled this year, no doubt about it. However, we already have seen some glimpse of hope with Alcantara on June 10 when he gave up one earned run in seven innings against the Chicago White Sox. Still, we need to see a lot more. His fastball velocity is in the top 5% of pitchers and his chase rate and barrel rate are among the best, but an ERA close to five isn’t going to cut it, especially when you can’t rely much on your bats or bullpen support. I’d wait for the ace to find his form again.

New York Mets’ Justin Verlander -5.5 units
The man recently said it himself Monday, “I’m not paid the way I’m paid — and I don’t expect — to pitch like that, per SNY.” He labeled his current form as “mediocre” and “subpar.” And he’s not wrong. With a 4.85 ERA, strikeout rate in the bottom 30% and hard hit rate even worse, Verlander has been far from intimidating against even some of the easiest lineups. However, we are only working with a seven-start sample size, and his advanced stats do show some positive regression. Still, the 2022 American League Cy Young winner is backed by a roster that has been underwhelming and in a tough NL East, that just won’t do. I’d stay away from the should-be-ace until he figures out whatever is giving him trouble, especially since books are still likely to price him as a decent favorite despite his recent struggles.

San Diego Padres’ Blake Snell -9.7 units
Snell actually has been solid this season with a sub-4.00 ERA and only two outings where he allowed more than three earned runs. However, he hasn’t had the bat support that was much expected from a star-studded lineup. Surprisingly, the bright spot on this team is their bullpen, which has the 5th-lowest ERA. With relief support, once the offense does start to play up to expectations, Snell starts could be a spot you want to look out for when it comes to betting.

Quick shoutout to Kansas City Royals’ Jordan Lyles who comes in at No. 267 out of 267 pitchers with -14.4 units. I’d stay away from betting on him and his 6.89 ERA for the foreseeable future.

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