The term “breakout” has different meanings for different people in the world of fantasy football. Some folks believe it’s simply a player who will outperform his draft position. Others think it’s an established player who emerges into a regular fantasy starter after never having reached that sort of status in the past.
In my opinion, both definitions are true but with a caveat. I don’t see a player as a breakout candidate if he’s already reached his “statistical ceiling” during his career. For example, Justin Herbert or Najee Harris aren’t “breakouts” to me. Is Herbert coming off a down year? Yes. But that doesn’t make him a breakout candidate. The same goes for Harris, who has been considered a top-10 pick in the past.
In my opinion, you can’t break out twice.
Could these players be labeled as bargains in 2023 fantasy drafts? Absolutely. But they’re certainly not considered “breakouts” based on my definition. I also consider some rookies to be breakouts, as these players could outperform or meet their draft position expectations without ever producing in the pros.
Another example of a breakout player is Josh Jacobs. He was very good in the stat sheets his first three seasons, but last year he broke out with career bests across the board. It was likely his “ceiling” season in fantasy leagues.
With that in mind, here’s eight potential breakout wide receivers to target in fantasy drafts who could have career best seasons in 2023.
Wilson was the NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2022, posting 1,103 yards and 215.7 fantasy points. That was with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco and Mike White throwing him the football. Just imagine what he’ll do with future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers? While the Jets did add Allen Lazard, Mecole Hardman and Randall Cobb, I still like Wilson to move into No. 1 fantasy wideout territory.
Chris Olave, Saints
Olave also had a solid rookie season, finishing as the WR25 on the strength of his 72 catches, 1,042 yards and 198.2 fantasy points. Much like Wilson, I think he can be better in 2023. The return of Michael Thomas could be a hindrance, but he’s been out of action for all but 10 games in the last three years. Don’t be surprised if Olave is Derek Carr’s top option and a high No. 2 fantasy wideout.
Marquise Brown, Cardinals
Brown has had some good but not great seasons between Baltimore and Arizona, but this could be the year he busts out. The Cardinals released DeAndre Hopkins, which leaves Brown as the team’s No. 1 wideout. In the first six games of last year, all without Hopkins, Brown was the WR5 and averaged 18.3 points. If he can avoid injuries, he could make some real noise in the stat sheets.
Jerry Jeudy, Broncos
If it feels like we’ve been waiting forever for Jeudy to break out, well, we have. He’s still yet to have a 1,000-yard season, and he’s failed to meet fantasy expectations. Might that change with new head coach Sean Payton? In 15 years as the main man in New Orleans, the Saints failed to have at least one 1,000-yard wideout five times. I’d draft Jeudy in the mid rounds as an upside No. 3.
Christian Watson, Packers
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It was a tale of two seasons for Watson as a rookie, as he was waiver wire fodder in the first half before turning into a touchdown machine down the stretch. In fact, he was the WR9 over the final eight weeks of the fantasy season including the playoffs. Much depends on whether Jordan Love can be an effective passer, but Watson will be his top option in what will be a new-look offense.
Drake London, Falcons
London had a hot start to his rookie year, averaging more than 17.1 points a game. Things fell apart after that before averaging 14 points over his final five contests of 2023. The Falcons quarterback situation is a question mark, of course, as Desmond Ridder is slated to be their starter. Regardless, London figures to lead this team in targets in what should be an improved offense.
Treylon Burks, Titans
Burks enters his second season as the Titans unquestioned No. 1 wide receiver by default. The wide receiver room is super thin, so target volume won’t be a problem. While Burks didn’t do much overall, he showed off his statistical potential at times. He scored 12-plus points three times, including two games with 17 or more. If he avoids injuries, Burks could push for a productive campaign.
Kadarius Toney, Chiefs
Toney projects to be the No. 1 wide receiver in Kansas City, so he’s in line to be a potential sleeper or breakout candidate. There are some concerns, though, including the fact that he’s had health issues and Patrick Mahomes likes to spread the ball around to his wideouts. Still, Toney hasn’t been in a better spot to succeed in his pro career, so take him as a No. 4 wideout with upside.
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