Patriots 53-Man Roster Projection: Looking Ahead After Minicamp

Bill Belichick often stresses that spring practices are about teaching and learning. The true competition and evaluation, the Patriots head coach says, don’t start until training camp begins in late July.

So, any declaration that a player solidified his roster spot in organized team activities and minicamp is premature. The list of New England players who flashed in the spring only to fade in the summer is long, with wide receivers Tre Nixon (2022) and Maurice Harris (2019) standing out as two recent examples.

But that doesn’t mean spring practices are useless. It’s the first time coaches — and, eventually, media members — get to see how a team’s new collection of players performs on the field together. Trends emerge. Surprises occur.

Reporters were permitted to watch a total of five Patriots practice between OTAs and minicamp, with the team canceling a planned sixth on Wednesday to close out its spring schedule. Based on what we observed in those five practices, and keeping those aforementioned caveats in mind, here’s our latest crack at predicting New England’s initial 53-man roster:

QUARTERBACK (2)
In: Mac Jones, Bailey Zappe
Out: Trace McSorley

McSorley looks like an ideal practice squad candidate. Undrafted rookie Malik Cunningham is listed as a quarterback but is attempting to make the move to wide receiver.

RUNNING BACK (4)
In: Rhamondre Stevenson, Ty Montgomery, Pierre Strong, Kevin Harris
Out: J.J. Taylor

The Patriots already made one cut here, releasing James Robinson during minicamp. Montgomery bounced between running back and receiver this spring and looked, as Bill Belichick put it, “really healthy” after missing almost all of last season with an injury. Strong, who hardly played on offense as a rookie, also was heavily involved in the passing game. Can they provide the depth behind Stevenson that the Patriots lacked last season? We’ll see. With a number of big-name backs still lingering in free agency, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a midsummer addition here.

TIGHT END (3)
In: Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki, Matt Sokol
Out: Anthony Firkser, Scotty Washington, Johnny Lumpkin

With the Patriots expected to major in two-tight end sets this season, it makes sense for them to carry at least one backup at the position. Who that’ll be depends on what they’re looking for from that spot. We gave Sokol the nod because he can supply some of the blocking ability that the Henry/Gesicki duo lacks, but if the Patriots want another pass-catching option, they could choose Firkser, who has far more NFL experience than Sokol, or converted receiver Washington. Lumpkin, a massive UDFA who looks like an offensive tackle, could be in the mix, too, if New England wants a pure blocker for heavier sets.

WIDE RECEIVER (5)
In: JuJu Smith-Schuster, DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne, Tyquan Thornton, Demario Douglas
Out: Kayshon Boutte, Tre Nixon, Raleigh Webb, Malik Cunningham, Ed Lee

A DeAndre Hopkins signing obviously would change things here, with his arrival potentially pushing someone like Parker off the roster. The Patriots could immediately part ways with Parker or Kendrick Bourne if they feel the need to clear salary cap space, or hold on to this whole group, plus Hopkins, until closer to cutdown day. They already were lean at wideout this spring with Smith-Schuster, Thornton and Boutte all missing multiple practices, so the latter might be the more desirable avenue.

Of course, there’s no guarantee Hopkins will leave his Patriots visit with a contract. If he doesn’t come aboard, the first four names on that list should be locked into roster spots. We have Douglas nabbing the fifth and final one at the moment, but the battle between him and fellow rookies Boutte, Cunningham and Lee will be one to watch in camp. Of that group, Lee — a UDFA out of Rhode Island — showed up the most in spring practice.

OFFENSIVE TACKLE (5)
In: Trent Brown, Calvin Anderson, Conor McDermott, Riley Reiff, Sidy Sow
Out: Andrew Stueber

If Brown is healthy and on his game, this group should be in decent shape. If not, things could get ugly. His status is one of the Patriots’ biggest X-factors after he didn’t fully participate in any of New England’s spring practices.

INTERIOR OFFENSIVE LINE (5)
In: David Andrews, Cole Strange, Mike Onwenu, Jake Andrews, Atonio Mafi
Out: Bill Murray, James Ferentz, Chasen Hines, Kody Russey

The top trio here is set, assuming Onwenu recovers from his offseason ankle surgery in time for the season. The question: Will rookies Jake Andrews and Mafi push out all of last year’s depth options? Both saw first-team reps at right guard this spring with Onwenu sidelined, and Andrews can back up David Andrews at center.

DEFENSIVE LINE (6)
In: Davon Godchaux, Christian Barmore, Deatrich Wise, Keion White, Carl Davis, Daniel Ekuale
Out: Lawrence Guy, Sam Roberts, Jeremiah Pharms, DaMarcus Mitchell, Justus Tavai

We mentioned Guy as a potential surprise cut in our first roster projection, and he falls on the wrong side of the cutline here after skipping mandatory minicamp, reportedly over a contract dispute. White also could be lumped in with the edge rushers; he saw reps as a hand-in-the-dirt D-end and a stand-up outside linebacker this spring. As with O-linemen, we’ll get a much better sense of this group once the pads come in in training camp.

LINEBACKERS (8)
In: Matthew Judon, Ja’Whaun Bentley, Marte Mapu, Jahlani Tavai, Josh Uche, Anfernee Jennings, Chris Board, Mack Wilson
Out: Ronnie Perkins, Terez Hall, Calvin Munson, Olakunle Fatukasi
Injured reserve: Raekwon McMillan

The most fascinating player in this position group is Mapu, who played both linebacker and deep safety in OTAs and minicamp. Multiple veteran players remarked on how the third-round rookie’s versatility will help the Patriots’ become more unpredictable.

CORNERBACKS (6)
In: Christian Gonzalez, Jonathan Jones, Jack Jones, Marcus Jones, Myles Bryant, Isaiah Bolden
Out: Ameer Speed, Quandre Mosely, Rodney Randle

The leading cornerback quartet of Gonzalez and the three Joneses showed a ton of potential this spring, with Gonzalez living up to his first-round billing in non-padded practices. Bryant is unpopular among Patriots fans, but he’s a smart, versatile player who can provide depth in the slot and at safety. For the last spot here, Bolden got the nod over fellow late-round rookie Speed because of his kick-return ability.

SAFETIES (4)
In: Kyle Dugger, Adrian Phillips, Jabrill Peppers, Jalen Mills
Out: Joshuah Bledsoe, Brad Hawkins

Bledsoe was a tough cut, but the Patriots are so deep here with Mapu also in the mix and Jonathan Jones, Marcus Jones and Bryant all able to drop back to safety. We still don’t have a clear picture of who Devin McCourty’s primary replacement will be, but Peppers believes losing the longtime free safety could be a blessing in disguise.

SPECIALISTS (5)
In: K Chad Ryland, P Bryce Baringer, LS Joe Cardona, ST Matthew Slater, ST Brenden Schooler
Out: K Nick Folk, P Corliss Waitman, LS Tucker Addington, ST Jourdan Heilig
Physically unable to perform list: ST Cody Davis

We strongly considered keeping Heilig, who spent the entire spring glued to Slater rather than working at his listed position of linebacker. The Appalachian State product might have the best chance of anyone to extend the Patriots’ UDFA streak. But he falls short for now. This projection also has both of New England’s rookie specialists making the cut, but they’ll need to win those jobs over veterans Folk and Waitman this summer.

The post Patriots 53-Man Roster Projection: Looking Ahead After Minicamp appeared first on NESN.com.