Tropical depression expected to form on Monday as another wave emerges off Africa

A tropical wave that emerged off the coast of Africa last week is likely to become a tropical depression, and possibly a tropical storm, at some point on Monday as it pushes toward the Caribbean, according to the National Hurricane Center.

In its 2 a.m. Monday update, the hurricane center, which has calculated the system’s chances of development in 48 hours at  90% since 2 p.m. Sunday, wrote: “Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight.”

The system, located several hundred miles southwest of Africa’s Cape Verde Islands, has a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are continuing to organize, the hurricane center said.

The latest path has it approaching the Leeward Islands, the eastern edge of the Caribbean, by late next week.

It is expected to move west at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central Atlantic, the hurricane center said in its Sunday update.

If it develops, it would become Tropical Depression Three. If its sustained winds reach 39 mph, it would become Tropical Storm Bret.

Meanwhile, in the 8 p.m. update, a second wave was shown to be emerging into the eastern Atlantic Ocean off of western Africa. Originally given a 10% chance to develop in the next 48 hours and 20% over the ensuing seven days, at the 2 a.m. Monday update, it was bumped up to a 20% development chance in the next 48 hours and 30% over the next week.

Tropical Storm Arlene, which formed in early June and was short-lived, brought damaging winds and heavy rain to parts of South Florida and the Keys.

Experts predict 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes to develop this hurricane season, which runs until Nov. 30.

A strong El Niño weather pattern is expected during the peak of this season, which can decrease cyclone activity in the Atlantic because of increased vertical wind shear. But ocean temperatures are the highest on record since 1979 based on recent 30-day averages, according to the forecast from Colorado State University released earlier this month.

The unusually warm temperatures could counteract the typically decreased activity during an El Niño.