The various election scenarios in Greece

The important parliamentary elections in Greece will take place on June 25. This time, the electoral system will be better balanced between proportionally representing in parliament all the political forces of the country and enabling the leading political party to form an effective government.
Under the new system, the first party which will secure 25 per cent of the total valid votes cast will get a “premium” of 20 (out of 300) parliamentary seats plus one seat for every extra 0.5 per cent of the total valid votes cast (up to a maximum prim of 50 seats, on securing 40 per cent of the total valid votes cast).
Obviously, the “self-sufficiency” of 151 seats can be more easily attained under the new “fortified majority” electoral system. However, the attainment of self-sufficiency is a function of the votes cast in favour of each party participating in the election process, but also of the valid votes cast in favour of the parties that will fail to attain the 3 per cent entry threshold and will left out in the cold.
To facilitate the comprehension of the dynamics of the new system, four alternative scenarios are set out in the table which follows, the first of which is based on the votes cast in favour of each party participating in the last general elections.

The table shows that, if the election results on June 25 were to be exactly the same with those of May 21, the “self-sufficiency” of New Democracy will be translated into 171 seats. If, however, a few voters move from Syriza and Pasok to two other parties, so that they cross the 3 per cent entry barrier, while the votes cast in favour of New Democracy are confined to 35 per cent, then the “self-sufficiency” will be a marginal one, at 151 seats.
It follows that the voters of New Democracy will commit a grave mistake if they fail to turn up at the polling stations on June 25, by resting on the laurels they secured on May 21.

Christos Panayiotides is a freelance journalist