The GOP field discovers there are only side acts in the Trump show
The problem for Donald Trump’s rivals with the wall-to-wall media coverage of his indictment isn’t just that Trump is once again drawing all the attention in the presidential primary.
It’s that, more than ever before, there appears to be no end in sight, with the prospect of a prolonged legal battle reducing his competitors to commentators on his legal troubles — or drowning them out entirely.
“Trump always gets all the coverage,” said an adviser to one of Trump’s opponents, granted anonymity to speak freely about the campaign. “This is what it’s like to run against Trump.”
The turn from a Trump-centric to a Trump-only primary was nowhere more evident than in the days following Trump’s indictment last week. The case virtually sidelined him from the campaign trail, with Trump visiting a Miami courthouse to enter a not-guilty plea in his classified documents case before visiting a Miami eatery and then jetting back to his golf club in Bedminster for a fundraiser.
But even in his absence from the hustings of Iowa and New Hampshire, Trump was omnipresent — a reality fast cementing as the rule, not the exception, in the unfolding 2024 primary battle.
“No one is thinking outside the box on how to effectively message the existential threat and dilemma that the party is in with this,” said a Republican strategist who is unaffiliated with any campaign, but who was granted anonymity to speak frankly about campaign strategies.
“There is a non-negligible chance the nominee of our party will be charged and go to jail. Setting aside how you feel about this, we can’t govern from a jail cell. I just think people are scared to make that argument. And when you duck and hide from it – that is why the oxygen is getting sucked out of the room.”
The difficulty for Trump’s competitors is that nothing — not even about the indictment — seems to be dragging Trump down. Trump’s polling did not appear to budge no matter how many times his rivals noted his mishandling of national secrets, after Trump pleaded not guilty to charges he kept top-secret government documents in his Palm Beach home and obstructed the government’s investigation into his possession of classified material.
But even worse for his rivals: Each of their successive entries into the race hasn’t resulted in much polling movement, either. In 2016, Trump entered the race polling in the single digits. But now he has more than half of the primary electorate’s market share, polling in some cases at more than 50 percent and leaving his competitors little room for any post-announcement polling bump.
“It's like they are challenging a sitting president, and in some ways, Donald Trump is a legitimate president in the minds of many Republican primary voters,” said Christine Matthews, president of Bellwether Research, who has polled for onetime presidential aspirant and former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan. “That could explain why there isn't a bounce. It's not a completely open field. And we're considering all these new faces who are popping in, it's like these are challengers to an incumbent.”
In that environment, it’s become almost impossible for Trump’s opponents to break through. When Trump’s challengers did make a splash last week, it only came in response to Trump.
Vivek Ramaswamy held a press conference on the sidelines of Trump’s arraignment in Miami to challenge his contenders to pardon Trump if elected. Nikki Haley got attention — but for her evolving response to the documents case. And Gov. Ron DeSantis was in Florida attending to the state budget, which was overshadowed by Trump news.
“He’s got all the right enemies,” said Trump pollster Jim McLaughlin. “And what happens is when you have an event like this, all those right enemies, especially in a Republican primary, are attacking him right now. So it helps him. When he’s gone up, DeSantis has gone down.”
The media circus that surrounded Trump over the past week was in part by design. Trump’s campaign knew that an unannounced stop at Versailles, an iconic restaurant in the heart of Little Havana, would make waves with the Republican-leaning Cuban pocket of south Florida. It also knew it would be irresistible to TV cameras and give the campaign control of the first post-arraignment images of Trump, since the courtroom appearance did not allow photographers.
Later, Trump’s remarks, where he laid out his argument against the indictment, attracted the attention of TV networks. Coverage of the event made the front pages of top newspapers.
“Trump just has this knack for understanding the moment … You’ve got to use your imagination, and it’s clear that Vivek was the only candidate with any imagination, because that was clever what he did down there, saying you know, ‘I'll pardon Trump when I'm elected president,’ which no one thinks will happen, but now he's put everybody else on notice,” said an adviser to Trump granted anonymity to freely discuss the campaign. “That’s what you do in politics.”
Steven Cheung, spokesperson for the Trump campaign, taunted rival candidates. “What we did at Versailles restaurant and Bedminster shows that we can do this on our worst day better than they can on their best day,” he said.
Trump’s ability to attract the spotlight isn’t a revelation. But for a field of Republican candidates eager to differentiate themselves from the former president, it’s becoming an increasingly pressing problem.
Former Vice President Mike Pence met with the Wall Street Journal editorial board last week for an interview that focused largely on his views of the indictment. But he briefly broke through in an interview on Fox Business' “Kudlow” the following day, when he seemed to get just short of an endorsement from the Fox host and Trump's former director of the National Economic Council. "I don't think there's anybody more qualified than you," Kudlow gushed.
Ramaswamy, who did his best to newsjack Trump’s whirlwind media week with his own press conference, denied in an interview that he did so to reap headlines.
“If you believe in something, you show up,” he said.
An adviser to another of Trump’s rivals, Sen. Tim Scott, said the campaign hasn’t been upset with its degree of media coverage since Trump’s most recent indictment. Despite a Fox News interview shortly after news broke of Trump’s indictment that focused almost entirely on the Trump news, Scott’s interviews with conservative media since then have only briefly touched on the former president.
Scott faced only light questioning about the indictment in interviews with Mark Levin and Simon Conway, and Sean Hannity announced he is holding a televised town hall with Scott this week in South Carolina.
Haley, too, has managed to score some headlines on the type of news her campaign is pushing. Local media in Iowa covered the roll-out of her campaign team in the state, while South Carolina news outlets have previewed an upcoming voter town hall. But the major national headlines Haley drew were for her comments about Trump’s indictment — first that Trump had been “reckless” and then that she would still be “inclined” to pardon him if he is convicted of federal charges.
To many Republican strategists, it’s not clear when, if ever, the dynamic will shift.
“It’s almost like you’re playing pool,” said a Republican strategist granted anonymity to freely discuss the campaign. “You have to break at the start, and nothing has broken the triangle. Trump is the 8 ball in the middle and he's’ not going anywhere for now. I’m curious to see what the fuck people are going to do.”