NBA mock draft: Jett Howard? Kris Murray? Jordan Hawkins? And how it all impacts the Heat

MIAMI — It could be argued that the Miami Heat enjoyed the best of all worlds this past season: a playoff run strong enough to land them in the NBA Finals, a regular-season finish so mundane that they are slotted in at No. 18 in the first round of Thursday’s 8 p.m. NBA Draft.

Unlike other leagues, playoff results do not factor in the NBA’s draft positioning. So a team that closed within three wins of a championship instead is placed according to its 44-38 regular-season record.

Now the question becomes whether the Heat see the placement as an opportunity to add cost-efficient talent on the NBA’s rookie scale at a time when their salary cap is bursting at the seams, or as a lucrative trade chip to be put into play for win-now talent on a win-now roster (Hello, Damian Lillard?).

Based on the NBA’s timing of 5 minutes between selections in the first round, as well as the requisite commercials and ESPN blather, figure on the Heat’s selection, if still in the hands of the Heat, falling around 9:45 p.m. Thursday.

And even then, nothing is guaranteed, with the NBA Draft renown for players selected by one team only shortly thereafter to wind up with another. Beyond that, timing elements also could have the Heat drafting a player Thursday who winds up being dealt in a prearranged deal after the start of the new cap calendar in July.

That said, here’s a look at how Thursday’s process could play out (and could impact the Heat).

1. San Antonio Spurs:  Victor Wembanyama, France, forward. This is almost like one of those Capital One “Easiest Decision” commercials.

Heat impact: While the thought after the Finals loss to the Nuggets was the league chasing Denver and having to find solutions for Nikola Jokic, the Spurs in short order could become the team being chased, as during the Robinson-Duncan-Parker-Ginobili era.

2. Charlotte Hornets: Scoot Henderson, G League, guard. While Brandon Miller has become the name of choice here, Henderson likely will be the name chased by teams looking to trade up to No. 2.

Heat impact: With the Heat playing the Hornets four times a season as division rivals, will Charlotte choose to live more in the moment under new leadership, or will this remain a forever-in-rebuild Heat rival?

3. Portland Trail Blazers: Brandon Miller, Alabama, forward. In a draft with a first three who seemingly have distanced themselves, it’s either Henderson or Miller at no worse than this spot.

Heat impact: This will be the seminal moment for a read on whether the Blazers are seeking to placate Damian Lillard with a trade of No. 3 for an All-Star veteran, or whether the Blazers stay in the draft and work toward a non-Lillard future.

4. Houston Rockets: Amen Thompson. Overtime Elite, wing. The former Pine Crest product took an alternative path through the Overtime Elite program, poised to arrive as an uber-athletic playmaker perhaps in the Russell Westbrook mold.

Heat impact: Thompson could be the first of three previously Broward-based prospects to go among the lottery selections.

5. Detroit Pistons: Cam Whitmore, Villanova, forward. An athletic 3-and-D who needs to reduce turnovers, but can attack closeouts and hit threes. Could work well alongside Cade Cunningham.

6. Orlando Magic: Ausar Thompson, Overtime elite, guard. Amen’s twin brother, who also spent time at Pine Crest, could help address the Magic’s shooting and backcourt needs.

Heat impact: If the Magic hit early in the draft, they could be poised to present added Heat challenges, with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner already in place.

7. Indiana Pacers: Anthony Black, Arkansas, guard. Arguably the best defensive point guard in the draft, which is among the Pacers’ needs. Now can the shooting come around?

8. Washington Wizards: Jarace Walker, Houston, forward. A power forward who can step out on the perimeter while also providing needed defensive versatility.

9. Utah Jazz: Taylor Hendricks, Central Florida, forward. The Fort Lauderdale native who played at Calvary Christian Academy has been among the draft’s fast risers, needing only a stronger finishing touch to round out his game.

10. Dallas Mavericks: Cason Wallace, Kentucky, guard. A defensive backcourt presence for a team lacking in that regard, but the sense is Dallas will move this pick for a win-now veteran.

11. Orlando Magic (from Chicago Bulls): Gradey Dick, Kansas, guard. Arguably best pure shooter in a draft where the Magic need to load up on shooting. Also could surprise as a defender.

Heat impact: If the Magic hit on these two lottery picks, they could provide a true state rival in short order.

12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Bilal Coulibaly, France, guard. Victor Wembanyama’s teammate in France would arrive with a defensive disposition, while also needing to round out his offensive game.

13. Toronto Raptors: Leonard Miller, G League, forward. The Raptors’ ongoing quest for playable height moves them toward the Toronto-area native who is raw but carries considerable upside as an interior scorer and rebounder.

14. New Orleans Pelicans:  Keyonte George, Baylor, guard. A volume scorer who can support the Pelicans off the bench at the moment and perhaps offer even more down the road.

15. Atlanta Hawks: Jett Howard, Michigan, guard. Based on the rest of the current roster, shooting will support what the Hawks already have in place. Now the question is whether Quin Snyder can coax defense from the former University School player.

Heat impact: Remember, the Hawks knocked the Heat into the all-or-nothing play-in finale. This is another division rival who could again grow problematic.

16. Utah (from Minnesota Timberwolves): Jalen Hood-Schifino, Indiana, guard. Can play on or off the ball, giving the Jazz greater backcourt versatility to augment the frontcourt of Walker Kessler and Lauri Makkanen.

17. Los Angeles Lakers: Kris Murray, Iowa, forward. Brother of Kings forward Keegan Murray who potentially could step in to fill the scoring void if Austin Reaves’ is lost in free agency.

Heat impact: Howard and Murray also could be targeted by the Heat if they drop, particularly if the scoring of Max Strus is lost in free agency.

18. MIAMI HEAT: Jordan Hawkins, Connecticut, guard. A proven, championship-tier scorer who can ease the Jimmy Butler burden and also could mesh with the Heat’s defensive precepts. Could step in immediately at shooting guard, if Tyler Herro is dealt.

Heat impact: Of course, the Heat also could trade this pick in advance, during or after the draft. So all might not be as it appears.

19. Golden State Warriors: Dereck Lively II, Duke, center. At some point, the Warriors need to address actual height, a rim runner who won’t get in the way of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson or even Jordan Poole.

20. Houston (from Los Angeles Clippers): Noah Clowney, Alabama, forward. The Rockets’ need for productive size could land them just that, with an extremely mobile defender. Can grow with the rest of Rockets’ youth.

21. Brooklyn Nets (from Phoenix Suns): Nick Smith Jr., Arkansas, guard. Plenty of Tyler Herro in his game, a shooter with elite touch but also in need of additional NBA heft.

22. Brooklyn: Dariq Whitehead, Duke, guard. With back-to-back picks, the Nets can afford to take a shot with a 3-and-D option who went from elite prep prospect to injury-limited Duke tenure.

Heat impact: While the Nets have largely been written off as contenders after the James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving trades, their approach with these two picks, perhaps as trade fodder, could offer insight into their place as possible ongoing East contenders.

23. Portland (from New York Knicks): G.G. Jackson, South Carolina, forward. If the Blazers do move Lillard and go with a youth movement, there is a ton of upside here, the type the Blazers have hit on with Anfernee Simons and Shaedon Sharpe.

24. Sacramento Kings: Andre Jackson, Connecticut, guard. A defensive wing option who helps balance the offensive-oriented roster, profiling as one of the most athletic players in the draft.

25. Memphis Grizzlies: Kobe Bufkin, Michigan, guard. Can help ease the burden on Desmond Bane, particularly if Bane has to shift to playmaker amid the absence of Ja Morant. A quality piece who fits but might not stand as elite.

26. Indiana (from Cleveland Cavaliers): Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Marquette, forward. Call him P.J. Tucker with a greater wingspan if you will, but at this stage a quality value pick after solid Combine shooting.

27. Charlotte (from Denver Nuggets via New York and Oklahoma City): Rayan Rupert, New Zealand, forward. How about that? The Hornets, under new leadership, actually going with a defense-first selection after targeting offense at the top of the draft.

28. Utah (from Philadelphia 76ers via Brooklyn): Brandin Podziemski, Santa Clara, guard. A late-round move for shooting, at .438 on 3-pointers last season. Has moved up draft boards in recent weeks.

29. Indiana (from Boston Celtics): Brice Sensabaugh, Ohio State, guard. Elite-level scorer who brings questions as a ball stopper and defensive liability. Could set up as an instant-offense reserve.

30. L.A. Clippers (from Milwaukee Bucks via Houston): Colby Jones, Xavier, guard. Can play with the ball in his hands or off the ball, as well as offer a defensive presence.

Heat impact: The Heat do not own a second-round pick but are eligible to buy into the second round, potentially making those selected at No. 31 and beyond fair game