‘Succession’ predicted to receive 4 supporting actor Emmy noms, and none of them are Kieran Culkin

Be prepared for a “Succession” domination at the 2023 Emmys.

TV’s reigning Best Drama Series winner is predicted to receive numerous nominations this year across the board, including exactly four in the category of Best Drama Supporting Actor. For the past two seasons, HBO’s family drama netted three supporting male bids for Kieran Culkin as Roman Roy, Matthew Macfadyen as Tom Wambsgans (who won in 2022) and Nicholas Braun as Greg Hirsch. However, for this fourth and final season, Culkin has been promoted to the Best Drama Actor category, leaving an absence in the supporting race that Gold Derby predicts will be filled by Alan Ruck as Connor Roy and Alexander Skarsgard as Lukas Matsson.

For those keeping track at home, Best Drama Supporting Actor this year will have eight total slots, and if half come from “Succession,” that means all other dramas will be scrambling for the other four bids. As of this writing, Gold Derby predicts Giancarlo Esposito (“Better Call Saul”), F. Murray Abraham (“The White Lotus”), Matt Smith (“House of the Dragon”) and John Lithgow (“The Old Man”) will round out the category. Potential spoilers include Jonathan Banks (“Better Call Saul”), Jonathan Pryce (“The Crown”), Tom Hollander (“The White Lotus”) and Stellan Skarsgard (“Andor”).

The last drama series to nab four supporting actor bids in the same year was “The West Wing” in 2002, when John Spencer beat his co-stars Richard Schiff, Bradley Whitford and Dulé Hill. That year there were six nominees in the category — the others being Victor Garber (“Alias”) and Michael Imperioli (“The Sopranos”) — so one could argue it was much tougher for “The West Wing” to pull off the feat than it is today with “Succession” having eight slots.

Speaking of tough, there was also the unprecedented year of 1982 when “Hill Street Blues” completely dominated Best Drama Supporting Actor by taking all of the eligible slots for winner Michael Conrad and co-nominees Taurean Blacque, Charles Haid, Michael Warren and Bruce Weitz. Note that “Succession” won’t be matching that record of five nominees since there is not a fifth supporting male entered for consideration on the 2023 Emmy ballot.

Culkin is a two-time supporting nominee for “Succession,” losing to Billy Crudup (“The Morning Show”) in 2020 and Macfadyen in 2022. Perhaps he’ll find better luck up in the lead category for this final season, where he’ll face off against 2020 winner Jeremy Strong and frequent nominee Brian Cox.

Macfadyen and Braun are both seeking their third nominations in the supporting race this year. Meanwhile, Ruck is hoping for his first major awards bid, while Skarsgard is a prior supporting Emmy winner for the limited series “Big Little Lies” and he received a “Succession” bid last year as a guest star.

In all, Gold Derby predicts “Succession” will amass 14 acting nominations this year: Strong, Culkin and Cox in lead actor, Sarah Snook in lead actress, Macfadyen, Braun, Ruck and Skarsgard in supporting actor, J. Smith-Cameron in supporting actress, James Cromwell and Arian Moayed in guest actor, and Harriet Walter, Cherry Jones and Hiam Abbass in guest actress. Fourteen would actually match the record number of acting citations it received last year.

PREDICT the 2023 Emmy nominees through July 12

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