The overboard deaths of a 7-year-old boy and his mother show the most likely scenario when people fall off cruise ships

• A young boy and his mother both died after going overboard a passenger ferry earlier this month.
• The incident represents the most likely outcome for those who tumble off large boats.
• Only 28% of people who fall off cruise ships are rescued, according to industry data. 

The tragic story of a young boy and his mother who both died after going overboard a large passenger ferry in the Baltic Sea last week is a stark reminder of the final fate that awaits most people who tumble off large boats and into the water.

A 7-year-old Polish boy went overboard a Stena Line ferry transporting passengers from Sweden to Poland last Friday, the ferry company told Insider. His mother jumped into the water to try to rescue him, but neither were recovered from the water alive, according to authorities. 

The international incident had a decidedly darker outcome than a recent overboard occurrence that made headlines when a woman was successfully rescued after she fell from the 10th deck of a Royal Caribbean cruise ship last month and spent nearly an hour in the open water.

Experts told Insider it was "nothing short of miraculous" that the woman was saved.

The Royal Caribbean rescue in turn recalled the incredible incident in which a man who fell off a cruise ship in the Gulf of Mexico was successfully rescued after the spent more than 20 hours treading water and eating bamboo to survive. 

But the triumphant tales of water rescues are few and far between.

Of 212 overboard incidents between 2009 and 2019, only 48 — or 28.2% — of those who went overboard were successfully rescued, according to a report from the Cruise Lines International Association.

In May, a 35-year-old man went overboard a Carnival cruise. The Coast Guard ultimately suspended the search for him after 60 hours.

In 2023 thus far, there have been 10 overboard incidents affecting 11 people, according to data compiled by Ross Klein, a social work professor at Memorial University of Newfoundland, who runs a cruise safety website. Nine of those eleven people died as a result. 

Despite the headline-grabbing tales of murky seas and foul play, overboard incidents remain a real rarity on cruise ships, according to industry data and experts.

In 2019, the last full year of pre-Covid data, 25 people went overboard according to a 2020 CLIA report. That number includes both passengers and crew members.

Compared to the more than 13.7 million passengers who boarded a cruise in the US alone that same year, the likelihood of going overboard clocks in at less than 0.000001%.