America, Don’t Forget: ISIS Is Still a Threat

Almost 10 years have passed since President Barack Obama made his vow: “Our objective is clear: We will degrade, and ultimately destroy, ISIL.” Yet the terrorist group — also known as ISIS — continues to engage American troops in combat, including in 38 operations last month. (RELATED: Filipino Raid Kills ISIS Leadership)

With American boots still on the ground and top American generals saying that “ISIS remains a significant threat within the region,” it is in the national interest to review the current state of the fight against ISIS.

Origins of ISIS

The CIA reports that the group — originally founded as an anti-Western and anti-Israel terror group in the 1990s known as al-Tawhid wal-Jihad — pledged loyalty to Osama bin Laden in 2004 and renamed itself al-Qaida in Iraq. 

This rebranding came after months of negotiations between bin Laden — who gave financial donations to the group in its infancy — and al-Tawhid wal-Jihad’s leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, according to the Brookings Institute. (RELATED: Turkish Election Sidelines Sweden’s NATO Bid)

After being killed in a 2006 American airstrike, al-Zarqawi was later succeeded by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2011, reports the Wilson Institute. Two years later the group renamed itself once again — this time becoming the Islamic state of Iraq and al-Sham, otherwise known as ISIS.

This new name reflected a growing tension between al-Qaida’s General Command and al-Baghdadi’s branch. 

Al-Baghdadi believed that the global jihadi movement’s goal should be to recreate the ancient Islamic empires known as caliphates by conquering territory and killing apostate Muslims, which, to him, primarily meant Shi’ites.

Al-Qaida, on the other hand, believed that the root of all evil was the West and that jihadis should focus on using terror to tear down their enemy. Despite efforts to mediate their differences, al-Qaida cut ties with ISIS in 2014.

Taking advantage of the civil war in Syria and Iraq’s struggling new democracy, ISIS forces began occupying territory in January 2014. Later that year, ISIS declared itself a caliphate and created its own bureaus to govern the conquered territory. 

For a time, the alleged caliphate appeared unstoppable. The Iraqi military, Shi’ite militias, Kurdish fighters, and a small handful of American military advisers were unable to stop ISIS’s rapid expansion. At its peak, the group controlled land the size of Kentucky and ruled over approximately 11 million people, according to a study by the Center of Military History.

The Americans Arrive

As the situation spiraled and the Iraqi government continued to ask for American aid, Obama decided to become militarily involved in the fight against ISIS. 

Referencing how the terror group had trapped the Yezidi people in the mountains, Obama made the following statement in August 2014:

I’ve said before, the United States cannot and should not intervene every time there’s a crisis in the world. So let me be clear about why we must act, and act now. When we face a situation like we do on that mountain — with innocent people facing the prospect of violence on a horrific scale, when we have a mandate to help — in this case, a request from the Iraqi government — and when we have the unique capabilities to help avert a massacre, then I believe the United States of America cannot turn a blind eye. We can act, carefully and responsibly, to prevent a potential act of genocide. That’s what we’re doing on that mountain.

Over the next several years, American forces fought the caliphate through airstrikes, with limited ground troops, and by supporting local forces, including the Kurds, the Iraqi government, and a Syrian rebel group known as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), according to the Wilson Institute. 

As America led an 82-member global coalition against ISIS, the caliphate continued to lose territory until its final stronghold of Baghouz was captured by Syrian rebels in March 2019. Following its territorial defeat, the group went underground and became an insurgency, reports the CIA.

ISIS and Islamist Insurgents

American troops have continued to work with Iraqi and Syrian forces to combat the insurgency. Leading the fight is the commanding officer for Central Command — or CENTCOM — Gen. Michael Kurilla, who has described a threefold strategy against ISIS. The first prong targets:

the current generation of ISIS leaders and operatives we are currently fighting.… While we have significantly degraded its capability, the vile ideology remains unconstrained. We must continue to pressure ISIS through our partnered operations.

As part of that goal, U.S. forces conducted 299 operations with Iraqi and Syrian forces against ISIS last year and killed 686 Islamist fighters, in addition to capturing 374. Those detentions have their own problems, however, and constitute part of the second prong of CENTCOM’s strategy.

Kurilla commented on the problem, saying, “There are, today, more than 10,000 ISIS leaders and fighters in detention facilities throughout Syria and more than 20,000 ISIS leaders and fighters in detention facilities in Iraq.” These facilities serve as a lucrative target for ISIS, as, if successfully raided, one operation can rapidly boost the terror group’s numbers.

On Jan. 20, 2022, ISIS launched just such an operation when it attacked the Ghwaryan prison in Syria, reports the Washington Post. With over 3,000 suspected ISIS fighters housed in the facility, the terror group instigated a 10-day battle — the largest since the collapse of the caliphate — so intense that British and American airstrikes were used to support SDF troops as they cleared the compound. 

Though no official number of escapees was ever released, estimates go as high as hundreds — fighters who returned to ISIS’s cause.

The Rising Generation of ISIS

Before the break, Ghwaryan prison held 700 teenage boys. These youths are the focus of the final arm of CENTCOM’s strategy against ISIS. 

In a press release at the end of last year, Kurilla described these boys as “the potential next generation of ISIS.”  Referencing a large refugee camp in Syria, Kurilla said that there are:

more than 25,000 children in the al-Hol camp who are in danger. These children in the camp are prime targets for ISIS radicalization. The international community must work together to remove these children from this environment by repatriating them to their countries or communities of origin while improving conditions in the camp.

While the United States has been repatriating its citizens from al-Hol, other governments have moved more slowly because they fear ISIS fighters and allies mixed in with the refugees will come home to spread the group’s terror and ideology.

Indeed, al-Hol has seen more than just ideology spreading. In late 2022, SDF troops scoured the camp and found a tunnel network that was being used to store weapons, explosives, and other supplies.

Regardless, Kurilla sees repatriation as the only long-term solution. In a Sept. 9 statement, he said: “There is no military solution to the threat posed by the al-Hol camp. I am certain of that. The most durable solution is for countries of origin to repatriate, rehabilitate, and reintegrate their citizens.”

Far-Flung Fighters

CENTCOM’s three-pronged strategy focuses on the core of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, but Islamist fighters around the world have pledged loyalty to the terror group. 

According to the CIA, significant ISIS branches are centered in Afghanistan, Mozambique, the Philippines, Egypt, West Africa, Bangladesh, Libya, the Mali-Niger border region, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with smaller branches centered in the Caucasus, Algeria, India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Somalia, Tunisia, Turkey, and Yemen. (RELATED: Honduras Heralds Growth of Chinese Influence in the Western Hemisphere)

In general, these branches — called “wilayats,” Arabic for “province” — were not established through ISIS fighters’ traveling around the world to establish local cells, though the Libyan wilayat is an exception.

Typically, local Islamist fighters from preexisting terror organizations will split from their former groups and declare themselves a wilayat of the caliphate. From there, they pledge allegiance to the ISIS core, who will then accept them into the fold.

The wilayats in India, Pakistan, and Azerbaijan are also exceptions, as they were split off from others by the ISIS core.

Regardless of their origin, all branches of the Islamic state group have the same goal: to overthrow their local governments and establish an Islamic state ruled by ISIS’s extremist interpretation of Islamic law.

Dragons and Snakes

Upon the fall of the Soviet Union, the soon-to-be-appointed CIA Director James Woolsey Jr. told the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence in 1993: “We have slain a large dragon.… But we live now with a bewildering variety of poisonous snakes. And in many ways, the dragon was easier to keep track of.”

Though China has become the next dragon stalking the halls of the Pentagon, smaller poisonous snakes like ISIS still remain. Even though ISIS is only a shadow of its former self, as long as Americans continue to risk their lives in firefights with its forces, the need to monitor the threat will remain. 

Halfway through earning a master’s in national security at the Institute of World Politics, Mason Stauffer is part of The American Spectator’s 2023 intern class. When he isn’t preparing for his future career in the national security sector, Mason can usually be found hiking through the National Park System or playing his trumpet.

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