Republicans sound alarm over DeSantis's sagging campaign

Questions surrounding Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’s (R) presidential campaign strategy are multiplying as he continues to trail former President Trump in the polls nearly a month after his highly anticipated campaign launch.

In a sign of just how concerned some of the governor’s allies are, the spokesperson for the pro-DeSantis PAC Never Back Down recently referred to Trump as the “runaway front-runner” in the primary and said that DeSantis faced an “uphill battle.” 

Meanwhile, DeSantis’s campaign faced backlash this week after sharing a video attacking Trump over his past comments in support of the LGBTQ community, leading some Republicans to raise concerns. 

One Republican strategist described the DeSantis PAC spokesperson’s comments as “a very clear-eyed moment.” 

“They realize they’re in a hole,” the strategist told The Hill. “They realize they can potentially win this and they are the only other game in town, but again, they are in a big hole.” 

The spokesperson, Steve Cortes, made his headline-grabbing comments on Sunday during a Twitter Spaces conversation.

“Right now, in national polling, we are way behind. I’ll be the first to admit that,” said Cortes, who previously worked as an adviser to Trump. “I believe in being really blunt and really honest. It’s an uphill battle.”

Cortes emphasized that he still believed DeSantis could win, while also pointing out how Trump’s prior experience could be aiding him.

"The former president has debated through two successive presidential cycles, so of course he possesses a lot of experience in that arena,” he said. “But I am convinced that Governor DeSantis will outperform expectations and inform large audiences about his amazing life, political record, and winning agenda for the presidency."

"Taking on an incumbent or former president in the primary always represents a significant challenge,” Cortes continued. “I gladly embraced that reality in joining the team. All of us on Team DeSantis remain convinced that the governor has a strong path to the nomination, and the best chance of any Republican to defeat Biden in the general election."

Still, there are reasons for allies of the governor to be worried. Around the same time Cortes’s comments surfaced, the DeSantis campaign’s “war room” sparked outrage and confusion with a video attacking Trump over LGBTQ rights, including for comments the former president made in support of the community after the deadly Pulse nightclub shooting in Florida in 2016.

Among those who criticized DeSantis were LGBTQ Republicans like Rep. George Santos (N.Y.) and 2024 rivals like former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

“They are looking for anything to garner attention so that they can use that to piggyback so they can spread their message,” said Ford O’Connell, a Florida-based GOP strategist, in response to the video. “If Trump isn’t taking up the news oxygen, Hunter and Joe Biden are taking up the news oxygen.” 

Polling shows that after his launch in late May, DeSantis has struggled to gain traction in national and early state-level polling. 

The Real Clear Politics average of polls shows Trump with 52.4 percent support, while DeSantis trails at 21.5 percent support. And a new Echelon Insights poll released Wednesday showed fellow Republican contender Vivek Ramaswamy gaining traction on DeSantis. The poll shows Trump leading the pack at 66 percent, DeSantis at 52 percent support and Ramaswamy at 40 percent support. In May, Echelon showed Ramaswamy in fourth place behind former Vice President Mike Pence.

“Everyone goes, my God, this Vivek guy is not going to win but he’s the only guy actually pushing the ideas envelope and the ideas that he’s pushing is actually reinforcing a lot of what Trump is saying,” O’Connell said. 

But Trump is still DeSantis’s biggest obstacle. 

“I will tell you that Trump is in a much stronger position now than he was in 2016,” O’Connell said. “They recognize that lightning in a bottle is their best chance to win this, so what they need to do is they need to get out there and make sure that everyone knows who Ron is, his biography and what he stands for.” 

And DeSantis and his campaign have been focused on getting boots on the ground in the early caucus and primary states, most recently hitting up New Hampshire for the Fourth of July holiday. 

“The rain may have been heavy, but the enthusiasm was high,” DeSantis spokesperson Andrew Romeo said in an email to reporters summing up the campaign stops. “Hundreds of Granite Staters turned out to show their support for the governor and his forward-looking vision for a better America.”

In a statement to The Hill on Wednesday, DeSantis’s campaign press secretary Bryan Griffin described the primary as “a marathon, not a sprint.” 

"Ron DeSantis has been underestimated in every race he has won, and this time will be no different,” Griffin said. “Donald Trump has to explain to Republican voters why he didn't do the things he is now promising in his first term as president. Governor Ron DeSantis over-delivered on his promises as governor and has the national vision we need to restore our country, clean out DC, and lead our Great American Comeback.” 

So far, it appears that DeSantis's bumpy start hasn't dissuaded donors from lining up behind him. On Thursday, the campaign announced it had raised $20 million in its first six weeks, though that trailed the more than $35 million Trump's campaign raised for the second quarter.

Of course, there’s also the possibility of further shakeups to the race between now and the Iowa caucuses, including the first Republican presidential primary debate, which is set to take place in August. 

“I kind of view the first debate as the beginning of the campaign, quite honestly,” said Justin Sayfie, a Florida-based Republican strategist. “That’s when voters will get to start to view the candidates side by side.” 

But it’s unclear whether Trump will even attend the debate and whether some of the lower-polling candidates will make the stage. 

“The dynamic changes if Trump’s on stage versus not on stage,” Sayfie said. “It changes if Chris Christie is on stage versus not on stage. We don’t even know those things yet.” 

And if the news cycle — including Trump’s recent indictments — is indicative of what’s to come, there could be more twists and turns going into next year. 

“The important thing, and I think people recognize this in a primary, is to not peak too soon and there's historical references,” Sayfie said. “I remember when John McCain had an event in Miami in 2007 and people were begging me to show up at his fundraiser and not even bring a check.” 

“His campaign was literally on life support and he ended up becoming the Republican nominee,” he added. 

But others have suggested that DeSantis peaked following the midterm elections when Florida Republicans saw sweeping victories there while Trump’s endorsed candidates largely performed poorly in other parts of the country. 

“The mistake they made, and again, it’s a mistake most people running for a new office make, they assume people know more about Ron than they actually do,” O’Connell said.