UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez Preview & Best Bets
A featherweight championship bout headlines UFC 290 as champion Alexander Volkanovski takes on interim champion Yair Rodriguez.
- Date: Saturday, July 8, 2023 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
- Venue: T-Mobile Arena – Las Vegas, Nevada | TV: PPV
No. 2 Robert “Bobby Knuckles” Whittaker is the best middleweight not named Israel Adesanya (as Alex Pereira has moved to light heavyweight). He’ll take on No. 5 ranked Dricus “Stillknocks” Du Plessis. Whittaker has won 13 of his past 15 fights, losing only to the current champion Adesanya. Du Plessis is on a seven-fight win streak, five straight in the UFC.
Du Plessis is an inch taller and will have a 2.5-inch reach advantage. Stillknocks has one-punch knockout power, averaging 0.94 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Bobby Knuckles’s 0.55. Du Plessis lands an impressive volume of significant strikes at 6.72 per minute, while Whittaker averages 4.48. Still, Du Plessis only absorbs 0.47 significant strikes more. Whittaker also has power, gaining nine of his 19 wins by knockout. However, eight of Du Plessis’s 19 wins have been by knockout, and ten have been by submission. He should have the grappling advantage, averaging 2.83 takedowns per 15 minutes to Whittaker’s 0.82, but Bobby Knuckles has an 84 percent takedown defense rate. Du Plessis also averages 1.26 submissions to Whittaker’s zero per 15 minutes.
Despite the statistics favoring Du Plessis, Whittaker is the cream of the crop at middleweight, but at -385, it’s tough to take the Kiwi to win outright. Whittaker hasn’t finished a fighter since 2017, so taking him by decision at +220 seems the intelligent way to go.
Flyweight Title BoutUFC Flyweight Champion Brandon “The Assassin Baby” Moreno defends his title against No. 2 ranked Alexandre “The Cannibal” Pantoja. Moreno is riding a two-fight win streak, beating Kai Kara-France and Deiveson Figueiredo by TKO. Pantoja enters on a three-fight win streak, outpointing Manel Kape and submitting Brandon Royval and Alex Perez.
Moreno is two inches taller and will have a three-inch reach advantage. Considering they’re 125-pounders, both fighters have quite a bit of power at 0.29 and 0.37 knockdowns per 15 minutes. Pantoja lands, on average, 0.7 more significant strikes but absorbs 0.19. Both have identical takedown defense rates at 67 percent and similar takedowns per 15 minutes at 1.8 and 1.37. Pantoja will have the submission edge, averaging 1.25 per 15 minutes to Moreno’s 0.58.
Pantoja has two wins over Moreno, submitting him on The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions in 2016 and by decision on UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman in 2018. However, Moreno has vastly improved since those bouts.
Moreno is the favorite at -194, but with Pantoja’s two previous wins over the champion, this is a spot to take the underdog. Take The Cannibal to win outright at +156.
UFC Featherweight Championship Main Event- Alexander Volkanovski vs. Yair Rodriguez
- Odds to Win: Volkanovski -400 | Rodriguez +285
- How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -105 | Submission +700 | Decision +105
- Will the fight go the distance? Yes +112 | No -140
UFC Featherweight Champion Alexander “The Great” Volkanovski defends his title against interim champion Yair “El Pantera” Rodriguez. Volkanovski has 25 wins and two losses over his entire MMA career, one being at welterweight and the other against UFC Lightweight Champion Islam Makhachev. Rodriguez is riding a two-fight win streak, beating Brian Ortega by TKO and Josh Emmett by submission.
Volkanovski will have to overcome a severe size disadvantage, coming in five inches shorter and with a half-inch reach disadvantage. They’re separated by 0.14 average knockdowns per 15 minutes, with Volkanovski having the edge. There’s a large discrepancy on the feet, with Volkanovski landing 6.35 significant strikes per minute to Rodriguez’s 4.78. Rodriguez also absorbs 0.63 more significant strikes per minute. Volkanovski should also have the grappling edge, averaging 1.52 takedowns to Rodriguez’s 0.79, while both fighters have similar takedown defense rates at 69 and 63 percent.
Volkanovski is an all-time great, with few fighters on his level at any weight class. He’s a tier above everyone else at featherweight, but his -375 odds are unattractive. Rodriguez looked great in his last fight, but Volkanovski is another animal. Volkanovski has toyed with his opponents over his previous few contest, so taking him by decision at +140 would be the way to go. However, a long-shot bet on Rodriguez to win by KO/TKO at +550 isn’t the worst idea either.
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez Betting Card- Whittaker by decision (+220)
- Pantoja to win (+156)
- Volkanovski by decision (+140)
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