Emmy nominations: ‘Star Wars’ franchise could score a hat trick

“Star Wars” could be in for a big year this Emmys as not one, not two, but three shows hope to snag nominations for Best Drama or Best Limited Series.

“Andor” and “The Mandalorian” are competing for Best Drama, with the latter hoping to make it three in a row, while “Obi-Wan Kenobi” is searching for a Best Limited Series bid. Here’s the breakdown.

Firstly, “Andor” is in a very good position as we lead up to the Emmy nominations. The show follows Diego Luna as the titular Cassian Andor in a spin-off story set before the spin-off movie “Rogue One,” which itself precedes “A New Hope.” “Andor” depicts how Cassian goes from a lone rogue to one of the most important parts of the Rebel Alliance as he comes across major players in the organization including Stellan Skarsgård‘s Luthen Rael.

The show has been very well received by both fans and critics, with a brilliant 96% score on Rotten Tomatoes. The site’s critical consensus reads: “A gritty adventure told from the ground perspective of the Empire’s reign, ‘Andor’ is an exceptionally mature and political entry into the ‘Star Wars’ mythos — and one of the best yet.” That is, by far, the best score on this list — and it’s one of the reasons why “Andor” is in our lineup of predicted nominees for Best Drama alongside “House of the Dragon,” “Yellowjackets,” “The Crown,” “Better Call Saul,” “The Last of Us,” “The White Lotus,” and “Succession.” In fact, the 96% score “Andor’s” inaugural season garnered is better than the majority of the seasons competing in this list.

“House of the Dragon” season one sits on 93%, “Yellowjackets” season one is at 94%, season five of “The Crown” earned the lowest score in the history of the show with 71%, “The Last of Us” sits on an equal 96%, and “The White Lotus” season two is on 93%. Only “Succession” season four, with 97%, and season six of “Better Call Saul,” with a near-perfect 99% are on higher scores. This could propel “Andor” to a nomination here. Plus, we expect Fiona Shaw to pick up a Best Drama Guest Actress bid and Andy Serkis to score a Best Drama Guest Actor bid, while Luna and Skarsgård are on the precipice of Best Drama Actor and Best Drama Supporting Actor nominations, respectively. Seeing so much “Andor” on their ballots could persuade voters to go for it in the big category.

Next up is “The Mandalorian,” which follows Pedro Pascal as the titular warrior (Din Djarin) and the warden of Grogu, AKA Baby Yoda. The two traverse the galaxy as they look to find a place for themselves amongst the stars far far away. Season three opened up the wider world of Mandalorians as Katee Sackhoff‘s Bo-Katan became a major player in the fight to reclaim Mandalore and fend off the re-emerging Empire, led by Giancarlo Esposito‘s Moff Gideon. However, the early love of “The Mandalorian” waned a little with this third season. The first two seasons scored 93% on Rotten Tomatoes but then dropped down to 85% for season three, with the site’s critical consensus reading: “Mileage may vary by a couple parsecs as ‘The Mandalorian’ becomes more and more about the connective tissue of broader ‘Star Wars’ lore, but this remains one of the most engaging adventures in a galaxy far, far away.”

That is still a respectable score but does it show that support is dropping off for this once treasured show? Perhaps. The good news is that “The Mandalorian” has Emmys history on its side. It’s won 14 Emmys so far and has received a number of major nominations including two Best Drama Series bids as well as a smattering of bids for writing, directing, and acting. This is a respected show that voters have taken seriously. It’s not unrealistic to think that that pattern could continue again this year. However, “The Mandalorian” currently sits outside of our predicted eight nominees for Best Drama Series — it’s not a million miles away but we reckon that both “Yellowstone” and “Bad Sisters” are ahead of this show in the race for a nomination here.

Last up is “Obi-Wan Kenobi,” perhaps the most divisive show on this list. The limited series was propelled forward by nostalgia as it brought back Ewan McGregor as the titular Jedi as well as Hayden Christensen as Anakin Skywalker/Darth Vader. The show follows a broken Obi-Wan in hiding looking out for a young Luke Skywalker, only to be drawn back into the crosshairs of the Empire and Vader himself when he goes on a mission to rescue little Princess Leia. McGregor excelled once more as Obi-Wan, delivering his most emotional performance yet as a once charismatic Jedi who has had the color and life drained out of him after one too many defeats. It’s a wonderful performance and a treat to see McGregor back in this role.

However, some critics were harsh on the show. It sits on a score of 82% on Rotten Tomatoes, the lowest score on this list, while the site’s critical consensus reads: “This won’t be the ‘Obi-Wan Kenobi’ some viewers are looking for, but Ewan McGregor’s soulful performance and some refreshing twists make this a satisfying — if circuitous — addition to the ‘Star Wars’ saga.” What could have been a home run for “Star Wars” and Disney+, then, has ended up becoming something a little less certain. The show is currently outside of our predicted nominees for Best Limited Series, which is made up of “George and Tammy,” “Daisy Jones and the Six,” “Fleishman is in Trouble,” “Black Bird,” “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story,” and “Beef.” Plus, we think that “Love and Death,” “A Small Light,” and “White House Plumbers” are ahead of “Obi-Wan Kenobi” in this race.

McGregor’s central performance is the shining light of this show, but even he is in danger of missing out on a nomination. He’s outside of our predicted nominees for Best Limited Series/TV Movie Actor, which is made up of Steve Carell (“The Patient”), Michael Shannon (“George and Tammy”), Daniel Radcliffe (“Weird: The Al Yankovic Story”), Taron Egerton (“Black Bird”), Steven Yeun (“Beef”), and Evan Peters (“Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”). If McGregor was in this lineup, it would give his show much more credence. Unfortunately, he isn’t, so it looks like “Obi-Wan Kenobi” will indeed miss out here.

That means, according to our ever-trusty predictions charts, that Disney will only go one for three with its “Star Wars” shows — “Andor” will be nominated, but “The Mandalorian” and “Obi-Wan Kenobi” will drop out. That isn’t disastrous for Disney but they certainly would’ve hoped for better, while Jon Favreau and Dave Filoni will quietly be hoping that “The Mandalorian’s” Emmys history will carry it toward a shock nomination for Best Drama Series. Let’s see.

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