Oscars 2024: Best Director Predictions

Nominations voting is from January 11-16, 2024, with official Oscar nominations announced January 23, 2024. Final voting is February 22-27, 2024. And finally, the 96th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 10 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT. We update predictions through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2024 Oscar picks.

The State of the Race

As always, big-name directors with big-budget projects get a marketing and awareness lift on the road to the Oscars. But festivals offer a crucial leg up in the prestige department.

Sundance introduced the acclaimed “Past Lives” (A24) from rookie director Celine Song, a Korean-American playwright who spins an auto-fiction relationship triangle about a married professional (Greta Lee) meeting her childhood sweetheart (Teo Yoo). The film is a specialty smash and could follow A24’s “Everything Everywhere All at Once” into Oscar contention.

It’s not unusual for a first-time director to get nominated or even to win: two stage-to-screen directors accomplished that feat with Delbert Mann (“Marty,” 1955) and Sam Mendes (“American Beauty,” 1999). Winner James L. Brooks came from television with “Terms of Endearment” (1983), and movie stars Robert Redford (“Ordinary People,” 1980) and Kevin Costner (“Dances with Wolves” 1990) won directing Oscars their first time behind the camera.

This season, “A Star is Born” director-star Bradley Cooper has a chance to land his first directing nod for “Maestro” (Netflix), in which he directs himself as composer Leonard Bernstein. And Ben Affleck could score the directing nomination denied him on Best Picture-winner “Argo,” although “Air” (Amazon/Warner Bros.) was neither as popular or critically hailed — it grossed as much as it cost ($90 million) at the worldwide box office. Still, older male Academy members are a ripe target demo.

Cannes launched several veteran directors into the race, including “The Departed” Oscar-winner Martin Scorsese with his gangster epic “Killers of the Flower Moon” (AppleTV+/Paramount), starring Leonardo DiCaprio, Robert DeNiro, and Lily Gladstone; and Todd Haynes, with his bizarre truer-than-fiction “May December” (Netflix) starring Julianne Moore and Natalie Portman. Haynes has yet to land a directing Oscar nod. Emerging from Cannes as a box-office hit is Wes Anderson’s “Asteroid City” (Focus), the auteur’s most accessible (and American) entry since “The Grand Budapest Hotel,” which earned nine nominations including Picture and Director and won four craft Oscars. Anderson wouldn’t mind another crack at a Directing Oscar.

Never-nominated British director Jonathan Glazer won the grand prize for German-language “Zone of Interest” (A24), a hard-hitting holocaust movie starring Sandra Huller, who also toplines French director Justine Triet’s Palme d’Or winning courtroom thriller “Anatomy of a Fall” (Neon), which is about 50 percent in English. The increasingly international Academy voters could push these films into contention in multiple categories, as they did “All Quiet on the Western Front,” “Parasite,” and “Drive My Car.”

Summer movies “Oppenheimer” (Universal), a biopic starring Cillian Murphy, and Mattel toy-inspired comedy “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) are eschewing festival launches in favor of intense marketing; directing nominees Christopher Nolan (“Dunkirk”) and Greta Gerwig (“Lady Bird”) have never won the Oscar for Best Directing.

Coming up at the fall festivals is Denis Villeneuve’s sequel to “Dune: Part One” (Warner Bros.), starring Timothée Chalamet and Zendaya. Sequels and sci-fi are often overlooked at Oscar time, especially when a third film is on the horizon, but while “Arrival” directing nominee Villeneuve was surprisingly overlooked for director, the first “Dune” entry garnered 10 nominations and six craft wins.

Another group of past-due Oscar nominees could be in contention for a directing win. After four directing nods, Ridley Scott has yet to take home a statuette; this year’s entry is bio-epic “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures) starring Joaquin Phoenix and Vanessa Kirby. After three directing slots, Alexander Payne is back with Christmas movie “The Holdovers” (Focus), rejoining his “Sideways” star Paul Giamatti.

Thrice-nominated for director, David Fincher puts an assassin (Michael Fassbender) on the run in “The Killer” (Netflix). Michael Mann (“The Insider”) will also make a splash at the fall fests with Italian racing biopic “Ferrari” (Netflix), starring Adam Driver in the title role and Penélope Cruz as his wife. Sofia Coppola (“Lost in Translation”) cast “Euphoria” star Jacob Elordi as Elvis opposite Cailee Spaeny (“Mare of Easttown”) in biopic “Priscilla” (A24) and Yorgos Lanthimos (“The Favourite”) rejoins Emma Stone in surrealistic sci-fi romance “Poor Things” (Searchlight).

Also upcoming is a set of promising titles from auteurs never-nominated for director. Taika Waititi’s Michael Fassbender soccer comedy “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight) premieres at audience-friendly TIFF. Emerald Fennell’s portrait of the moneyed aristocracy “Saltburn” (Focus) stars Rosamund Pike, Jacob Elordi, and Carey Mulligan. Jeff Nichols’ motorcycle odyssey “Bikeriders” (20th Century Studios) stars Tom Hardy and Austin Butler.

Mexico’s Michel Franco directs Oscar-winner Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”) and Peter Sarsgaard in New York-set “Memory,” which is seeking a buyer. Italian director Luca Guadagnino’s “Challengers” (Amazon/MGM) is a tennis world romantic triangle starring Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist. Reinaldo Marcus Green follows up “King Richard” with music biopic “Marley: One Love” (Paramount) starring British actor Kingsley Ben-Adir in the title role.

In his own category is Oscar-winner Ethan Coen (“No Country for Old Men”), who directs caper comedy “Drive Away Dolls” (Focus) solo for the first time without brother Joel. Margaret Qualley and Beanie Feldstein play two women who run into a band of inept criminals on the run.

Potential nominees are listed in alphabetical order; no one will be deemed a frontrunner until we have seen the film.

Frontrunners

Ben Affleck (“Air”)
Wes Anderson (“Asteroid City”)
Martin Scorsese (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
Celine Song (“Past Lives”)
Justine Triet (“Anatomy of a Fall”)

Contenders

Ethan Coen (“Drive Away Dolls”)
Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”)
Sofia Coppola (“Priscilla”)
Emerald Fennell (“Saltburn”)
David Fincher (“The Killer”)
Michel Franco (“Memory”)
Greta Gerwig (“Barbie”)
Jonathan Glazer (“Zone of Interest”)
Luca Guadagnino (“Challengers”)
Reinaldo Marcus Green (“Marley: One Love”)
Todd Haynes (“May December”)
Yorgos Lanthimos (“Poor Things”)
Michael Mann (“Ferrari”)
Jeff Nichols (“Bikeriders”)
Christopher Nolan (“Oppenheimer”)
Alexander Payne (“The Holdovers”)
Ridley Scott (“Napoleon”)
Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”)
Taika Waititi (“Next Goal Wins”)