Home Run Derby Odds and a Pair of Best Bets

The 2023 Home Run Derby takes place Monday night at T-Mobile Park in Seattle.

If you don’t know a lot about MLB and want to get in on some action, the Derby is a great place to start! Any player you pick pays plus money, with payouts anywhere from three times your investment to as much as 14-to-1. Plus, we get to see a lot of balls sent to the moon -- or at least into the bleachers. What’s more fun than that? Here is a quick breakdown of each of the players as well as the current odds at SI Sportsbook:

Updated Home Run Derby Odds
Pete Alonso, Mets +300
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays +330
Luis Robert Jr., White Sox +400
Adolis Garcia, Rangers +600
Julio Rodriguez, Mariners +650
Randy Arozarena, Rays +800
Mookie Betts, Dodgers +900
Adley Rutschman, Orioles +1400

Pete Alonso (+300) rightfully enters as the favorite, after winning the Derby two of the last three seasons. He’s hit more total home runs than anyone in Derby history. His swing is perfect for the contest, and he will win a third Derby -- if not more -- in his career. The only question is: Will it be this one? Alonso matches up with hometown hero Julio Rodriguez in the first round, and it could be a close one. 

Vlad Guerrero Jr. (+330) comes in with the next-best odds, and if you care about Statcast metrics at all, Guerrero should be able to win this one. I don’t care that he only has 13 home runs this season. He had only 15 home runs in the entire 2019 season when he set a record for the most home runs in a Derby (91). He hit 40 in Round 2 alone that year, before ultimately losing to Alonso in the finals. Now look at these stats: Among this year’s participants, Guerrero has the highest 2023 max exit velocity (116.7), average exit velocity (94.7) and hard-hit rate (57%). He’s tied for the longest home run (450 feet) among Derby participants with Luis Robert Jr. His first-round matchup is with Mookie Betts, and he should be able to prevail -- though Betts may not be as easy to beat as some may think. More on that later.

This will be the first Derby for Robert (+500), and his compact swing and impressive power are a perfect fit for this contest. He also has the advantage of a first-round matchup with Adley Rutschman (+1400), who has an average exit velocity and hard-hit rate in the bottom 28% of the league this season. Robert has the easiest draw, and he’s tied with Alonso and Betts for the most homers among participants this season (26).

Rodriguez (+650) matches up with favorite Alonso in the first round and that’s a big strike against him. Going for him, however, is his incredible performance from last year, when he finished second to Juan Soto despite hitting more home runs overall. And don’t forget, the crowd should be electric for Rodriguez, as it was in 2018 when Bryce Harper won it at home for the Nationals. If you believe in energy, J-Rod is the pick, despite the fact he only has 13 home runs so far this season.

Adolis Garcia presents good value at +600. Garcia has 23 home runs this season and leads the league in RBIs. He also owns the most barrels per plate appearance among Derby participants.

Garcia’s first-round matchup is with Randy Arozarena (+950), who has 16 home runs this season and enough power to compete. More importantly, Arozarena is the kind of guy that does well under pressure. Remember the 2020 postseason? It was so epic, Arozarena had me eating chicken and rice for a few weeks, too.

At +900, Betts is the player who isn’t getting enough credit. Yes, I admit a first-round matchup with Guerrero isn’t ideal, but don’t discount Betts. His average exit velocity is in the 92nd percentile of the league, and his 26 home runs this year are tied for third in the MLB with Robert and Alonso. It’s his first Derby, and I think he gives Guerrero a run for his money in the first round.

The side of the draw with Alonso, Guerrero, Rodriguez and Betts appears to be tougher. The pathway looks easier for Robert and Garcia.

Any player could with this one, but I am making two bets on this year’s Derby:

The Bets: Vlad Guerrero Jr. (+330) | Adolis Garcia (+600) for the value

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