The WFH-vs.-office war might be over and hybrid work is winning out, says the nation's top remote-work expert

• The return of in-office work has stalled out, according to work-from-home expert Nick Bloom.
• Remote work's prevalence is expected to continue increasing in the years ahead.
• Researchers explain how both employees and companies can benefit from a hybrid work model.

US companies haven't given up on getting their employees back to the office, but a new normal that's more of a hybrid system seems to be taking shape. 

That's according to Stanford economist and work-from-home expert Nick Bloom. In a tweet last week, Bloom said that the most updated data on remote work, office occupancy, and public transit use were pointing to the same conclusion: return-to-office is dead.

—Nick Bloom (@I_Am_NickBloom) July 5, 2023

Bloom's research found that in May 2020, as the pandemic took hold, more than 60% of US working days were spent remote. Office occupancy in the largest cities was a dismal 20%, and public transit use plunged 75%. But as pandemic restrictions eased, and more companies began calling their workers back to the office at least a few days per week, in-person work picked up.

As it stands now, roughly 25% of working days in the US are currently remote, according to a July paper co-authored by Bloom. But recoveries in office occupancy (up to 50%) and public transit use (still just 60% compared to pre-pandemic) have been partial.

What's more, these data points have leveled off in the last few months, Bloom told Insider. That suggests that the slow trickle of workers returning to the office could be coming to a halt.

"My belief now looking at the last six months of data is the drop in work-from-home has ended and going forwards it will be flat for a while before starting to rise," he said.

Why hybrid work is a "win-win" for businesses and their employees

If remote work persists at current levels or rises in the years ahead as Bloom expects, it will be due in part to Americans' desire for flexible working arrangements. But there are plenty of reasons for businesses to be fans of fully remote or hybrid models as well, Prithwiraj (Raj) Choudhury, an associate professor at the Harvard Business School and remote work expert, told Insider. 

"When you allow flexibility, it expands your talent pool," he said. "The reason I think this model will stick and become the equilibrium is every company is fighting for that same talent pool, and flexibility allows companies to attract and retain talent."

However, some research suggests that fully remote workers are less productive than their office counterparts. But balancing that out somewhat is the fact that they can also be less expensive for businesses, as they don't require office space and can be hired nationally or internationally, often at more moderate wages.

A hybrid model, meanwhile, could provide some productivity benefits. Choudhury said his research found that employees who worked-from-home 75% of the time were the most productive. Bloom's paper concluded that hybrid work had a "flat or even slightly positive" impact on productivity and improved employee recruitment and retention. 

"Hybrid, if it's well-organized, I think it's a win-win," Bloom previously told Insider.

Remote work could rise in the years ahead as technology improves

Per Bloom's most recent estimates, 60% of Americans work fully in-person, 30% work in-person between one and four days per week, and 10% work fully remotely. 

In March, Bloom predicted that in the long run, as remote work models and technologies improve, 40% of jobs will be in-person and 50% will be hybrid, both marked increases. He expects the fully-remote contingent to stay at 10%. He also forecasted that days worked from home could increase from 25% to 40% over the next two decades.

"This is the low-point for work-from-home and 2024 and certainly 2025 will see higher levels," Bloom told Insider. "Hence, the return-to-office push is weakening and has now met its match in improving technology, generating a short-run stalemate." 

In the short run, some experts have speculated that a slowing US economy could shift the power back to employers, which they could use to nudge workers back to the office more regularly. 

But Harvard's Choudhury said there's one reason a recession wouldn't crush the remote work movement. It comes back to businesses' ongoing competition for talent. 

"Whether the economy is contracting or expanding, the best workers always have outside options," he said. "And so I think if you as a company have a model that doesn't give the best employees flexibility, some of them, not every one of them, but some of them will be poached by competitors."