Student-loan holders will soon have $300 less to spend each month. That could be bad news for Target and Dick's.

• Student loan payments are set to resume in October following a Supreme Court ruling last month.
• Roughly 26 million people have loans in forbearance, with expected monthly payments of around $300.
• Analysts at Morgan Stanley project this will have a broad — but uneven — impact on major retailers.

A three-plus year suspension of student loan payments is set to come to an end in October after the Supreme Court ruled last month that President Joe Biden's loan forgiveness plan was unconstitutional.

Economists expect the change will slow consumer spending as the additional expense will force millions of borrowers to adjust their budgets.

Retailers are already bracing for the shift, which analysts at Morgan Stanley project will affect nearly every company — some more than others.

One in ten adults in the US — an estimated 26 million people — has federal student loans that have been in forbearance since 2020, and Morgan Stanley calculates that more than two thirds of those borrowers will face monthly payments of between $200 to $300.

"Retailers with high exposure to student loan holders that sell into a discretionary category are likely most at risk, while retailers with low exposure to student loan holders are likely most insulated," the analysts note.

In other words, brands like Target, whose shoppers tend to be younger and have more college and grad school debt,  are likely to see more of a spending pinch than those like Walmart, whose shoppers tend to be older and have less student debt.  

Shoppers with $300 less to spend each month also will likely shift their spending away from less-essential products like home goods and clothing and prioritize spending on essentials like groceries and car maintenance, the analysts write.

In addition to Target, the analysis calls out Dick's Sporting Goods, Wayfair, and Williams-Sonoma as particularly vulnerable to this pullback in discretionary spending.

By contrast, dollar stores like Dollar General and Dollar Tree, auto parts shops like O'Reilly and AutoZone, and Tractor Supply Co. join Walmart on the list of retailers who are expected to see less of a decline.

The Morgan Stanley analysis differs slightly from an earlier report by investment banking firm Jeffries, which found that more than a third of student debt holders' discretionary dollars go to Amazon, Walmart, and Target. 

Consumers with student debt spend around 18.58% of their discretionary spending at Amazon alone, followed by 11.76% at Walmart, and 5.96% at Target, according to consumer data company Numerator.