Economists forecast inflation cooling with the latest consumer price index this week

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its latest consumer price index this week for the month of June. The monthly index is one indicator of inflation, and economists are forecasting a bit of cooling. That would be a good sign for the Federal Reserve as it tries to get inflation under control.

The CPI is kind of like a month-to-month snapshot of increases or decreases in what we pay for goods and services. Things like food, gas, clothing, cars, travel, and entertainment.

It’s not the only measure the Fed looks at, but inflation is a big deal right now. 

“All the incoming inflation reports are highly important to the Federal Reserve as they determine the future path of interest rates,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide.

She expects the overall CPI to trend down. But even if so, Bostjancic said, that’s not likely to prevent the Fed from raising rates again later this month. 

“However, if this month, and then, again, followed by next month is a little softer, then they may not go ahead and raise rates in September,” she said. “So it does matter.”

And remember — the CPI is not a monolith. It includes pricing data across many different sectors. Some where prices are increasing and others where they’re trending down.

“Used cars, which went way up in price, have started coming down and, believe it or not, housing seems to be coming down,” said Kenneth Rogoff, a professor of economics at Harvard University. “Those are big items in the consumer price index that’s going to help.”

But, Rogoff said, day to day expenses are a different story.

“Restaurants, food, you know, other kinds of services, laundry, those are still going up,” he said.

That’s why many economists and the Fed may be paying closer attention to something called core CPI. That’s a read on inflation that excludes food and energy, because those prices tend to fluctuate more.

“Economists like to look at that core CPI measure to try to figure out just how persistent and sticky is that underlying inflation beyond what’s just happening with food and energy, which can be quite volatile,” said Michael Pugliese, a senior economist with Wells Fargo.

Pugliese said core CPI is also predicted to drop a bit.

“As we get into the second half of the year, policymakers at the Fed are keenly aware that this is when core inflation should start to slow down some and they want to see that in the data,” he said.

But if not, he said, then the Fed might have to go back to the drawing board.