Heat wave pushes demand on Texas grid to record highs

The heat wave is driving demand on Texas’s electric grid to record heights this week.

But the state should have enough in reserve to avoid serious disruption, according to projections from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT).

Demand on the grid hit an all-time record June 27 with nearly 81 gigawatts of demand, according to Reuters. That’s a record that the state will repeatedly break over the coming week, the ERCOT projected.

That electric load is expected to crack 83.6 gigawatts Tuesday and 84.4 gigawatts Wednesday.

Demand is expected to dip over the weekend as businesses and factories close before roaring back again to 83.4 gigawatts Monday.

This week’s projections are all higher than the all-time peak demand of 82.3 gigawatts that the ERCOT projected for the year.

In large part, that high demand is a function of high temperatures.

“The large cities will see high temperatures at least as hot as the last week of June, with the potential to reach 1-2 degrees hotter,” according to an ERCOT forecast.

Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Austin and San Antonio were all significantly higher than their 15-year averages Tuesday.

But that gap between current and historic heat was particularly notable in the latter two cities. San Antonio’s high was 104, and Austin’s was 106 — compared to their respective 15-year averages of about 96 and 97.  

Those temperatures drove prices for natural gas — which fuels about half of the state's electric generation — to record highs, according to Reuters.

Texas may not hit these projections, however. The ERCOT skews conservative in its projections, which are used in part to encourage businesses and homeowners to cut demand — which, if successful, can make those estimates appear incorrect.

For example, the regulator projected in late June that the state would break 83 gigawatts last month.

But while the grid did hit a demand record in late June, that record was set at 2 gigawatts lower than the ERCOT projections — or about a third of the state’s current reserves.