‘5 laps ahead': Trump thumbs his nose at Iowa traditions

He’s threatening to skip the primary debates. He’s publicly trashing the Republican governor of Iowa, infuriating traditional GOP operatives in the first-in-the-nation caucus state. And on Friday, for the second time in two months, Donald Trump will duck a major cattle call of GOP primary contenders there.

If it’s the prerogative of the frontrunner to pick and choose his spots, the former president is taking it to a new level, thumbing his nose at any institution or Republican politician he prefers not to court or appear alongside.

In a more competitive presidential primary, not being on the debate stage or snubbing Gov. Kim Reynolds might matter more. But in this GOP contest, it’s a reflection of Trump’s dominance that he can dismiss them — so far, with seemingly no price to pay.

“Part of the reason he’s five laps ahead is this how he deals with things,” said Dave Carney, a Republican strategist based in New Hampshire. “He doesn’t play the traditional candidate card. He will not mow a single lawn in New Hampshire this summer — other candidates might.”

Trump sent shockwaves through Iowa GOP circles this week when he posted on social media seemingly attacking Reynolds — who has an 86 percent approval rating among Iowa Republicans — for not endorsing his presidential bid. Reynolds said she is staying neutral in the primary, but in recent months has appeared alongside Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and other Republicans currently vying for president, while keeping her distance from Trump.

And on Monday night, Bob Vander Plaats, president of The Family Leader, an influential evangelical Christian group in Iowa, learned that Trump would not be appearing at his organization’s forum set for Friday, he said. The event, which the other major candidates are attending, will be moderated by former Fox News host Tucker Carlson. Trump’s absence there comes after he skipped another major cattle call, Sen. Joni Ernst’s “Roast and Ride” event last month, opting against even appearing by video.

Some Republicans in the state think such moves could cost him.

“It just makes folks question what the former president is up to when all of his focus appears to be on personal agenda items against Kim Reynolds and Bob Vander Plaats, rather than what I see and most Iowa Republicans I see to be the main problem — Biden and his agenda,” said Cody Hoefert, the former co-chair of the Republican Party of Iowa.

Hoefert was scrolling his phone on his couch Monday night when he came across Trump’s post on Truth Social, suggesting Reynolds owed her first gubernatorial win to Trump’s endorsement, while deriding her for remaining “NEUTRAL” ahead of the caucuses.

“I don’t invite her to events!” Trump added.

“I just went, ‘I’m done with this,’” Hoefert said of reading Trump’s post. “I’m done with this kind of crap … I still don’t know who I’m going to vote for, I just know I’m not going to vote for him in the caucus.”

After Trump’s remarks, GOP presidential candidates like DeSantis and Nikki Haley, along with Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) and Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) rushed to Reynolds’ defense, issuing statements of support for the governor.

“Stupid is as stupid does,” Vander Plaats, quoting Forrest Gump, tweeted in response to Trump.

David Kochel, a veteran Iowa Republican strategist, said Trump snubbing Reynolds in and of itself isn’t enough to lose the caucuses — and certainly not if the GOP field remains crowded come January. But he is “showing his very obvious penchant for self-destructive behavior by attacking Kim Reynolds,” Kochel said.

“He’s got his base in Iowa and around the country that will excuse anything he does — 'shooting someone on Fifth Avenue,'” Kochel said, referencing Trump's infamous claim of solid support. “But a lot of people who might have been with Trump because they thought he was going to win, it’s going to piss them off because he doesn’t take them seriously or Iowa seriously.”

Steven Cheung, a spokesperson for Trump, said a scheduling conflict is preventing Trump from attending this weekend’s Family Leader event, and noted he was “in Iowa last week and will be back next week.” Instead of attending the Iowa cattle call on Friday, Trump is the headlining speaker for the conservative youth conference Turning Point Action in West Palm Beach, Fla., which DeSantis is skipping. People close to Trump have pointed out that Vander Plaats has repeatedly made critical comments about the former president.

“While Ron DeSantis is putting in the work to win Iowa, Trump is doing everything he can to lose it,” said Andrew Romeo, a spokesperson for DeSantis’ campaign.

A large event Trump had planned for May in Des Moines was canceled at the last minute due to the threat of severe weather, and he ultimately held his first early-state rally of the campaign in South Carolina over Independence Day weekend. Trump returned to Iowa last week for a smaller affair geared towards farmers, where he ripped DeSantis’ agriculture policies.

Trump has also openly criticized six-week abortion bans, like the one Iowa Republicans passed — and one that Reynolds called the legislature back this week to approve again after recent court challenges.

While the Republican primary debates have traditionally been a powerful force in winnowing the field of candidates down to a smaller handful, Trump has threatened to skip at least the first two. Doing so would likely reduce both the television audience size and influence of the debates in the primary process, making it even more difficult for his opponents to gain traction.

The former president sees little upside in showing up to an event with his lower-polling rivals, according to people in his orbit. Doing so, they say, could needlessly give his opponents an opening to go after him. Trump also remains unhappy with Fox News, which is hosting the first event.

Iowa may not be essential to Trump winning the nomination. He lost the Iowa caucuses to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2016, and many of Trump’s rivals consider the state to be their best opening in 2024. Though accurate polling of likely caucus-goers in Iowa is difficult to come by, broader surveys of Republicans in the Hawkeye State continue to show Trump with a significant lead, polling more than 20 points ahead of DeSantis.

If his lead weren’t so great — there and nationwide — it might make a difference.

“He has 100 percent name ID among Republican caucus goers. What are the chances he goes to Bob’s deal and says something that’s going to get him five more votes?” Carney said. “If you're doing a risk analysis, the chance is more likely he says something that loses him five votes.”

Tyler Bowyer, the Republican National Committeeman from Arizona and chief operating officer of Turning Point Action, suggested that while Trump remains strong as the frontrunner and can pick and choose events, DeSantis can’t afford to skip out on that kind of massive gathering of voters.

“The bottom line is that you cannot win a GOP primary without convincing the 6,000 people representing all 50 states who will be in that room,” Bowyer said of this weekend’s Turning Point event, saying DeSantis’ decision to skip “sends a very mixed signal to potential voters by choosing to forgo one of the largest activist conferences of the cycle, that is conveniently located in his home state.”

Carney, a political consultant for Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, who has also advised former Govs. Rick Perry (R-Texas) and John Sununu (R-N.H.), added: “What I would not want to do is piss off a governor, if you get a governor who goes full-force against you.”

Reynolds, though, is unlikely to publicly wage war against Trump. A person familiar with Reynolds’ thinking said Tuesday that nothing Trump did or said about the governor has affected her plan to stay neutral.

And a Republican operative who has worked in Iowa, including closely with Reynolds, said the governor has “completely let this roll off of her, and has beyond moved on” from Trump’s most recent comments.

“Going into it, the Reynolds team knew what would happen eventually if they stayed neutral,” the person said. "She has a lot of strength in Iowa, regardless of where Trump stands on her.”

Sally Goldenberg and Alex Isenstadt contributed to this report.