Oscars 2024: Best Supporting Actress Predictions

Nominations voting is from January 11-16, 2024, with official Oscar nominations announced January 23, 2024. Final voting is February 22-27, 2024. And finally, the 96th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 10 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT. We update predictions through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2024 Oscar picks.

The State of the Race

The 2024 Oscars are shaping up to be a historic year for Indigenous American representation, as “Killers of the Flower Moon” star Lily Gladstone, who is of Blackfeet and Nimíipuu heritage, would far and away be considered the frontrunner should she enter the Best Supporting Actress race. Playing Mollie Burkhart, a member of a prominent Osage family, opposite Leonardo DiCaprio in Martin Scorsese’s long-awaited adaptation of David Grann’s 2017 book, Gladstone’s performance was the one that most stood out amongst those who attended the film’s Cannes premiere.

Regardless of what category she submits for (there is a case to be made for Best Actress, but Supporting is more likely), Gladstone is predicted to be the first Indigenous American actress ever nominated for an Oscar.

Meanwhile, the other big Best Supporting Actress campaign to launch out of Cannes is Julianne Moore in “May December,” her latest team-up with filmmaker Todd Haynes. Acquired by Netflix for U.S. distribution, the drama sees the Oscar winner playing a woman who is visited by an actress set to play her in a movie about her scandalous relationship with her now-husband, which began when he was underage. Though Moore has worked with Haynes plenty since their Oscar nominations for his 2002 film “Far from Heaven,” early reviews have called “May December” a return to form for both of them.

Unfortunately, the first half of the year has not produced many more performances that seem destined for a Supporting Actress nomination. Viola Davis as Michael Jordan’s mother Deloris in “Air” comes the closest, as the performance heavily contributed to the film exceeding critics’ expectations. Hong Chau (“Showing Up”), Anne Hathaway (“Eileen”), and Rachel McAdams (“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret”) all have a history with this category, and delivered crowd-pleasing performances in their new films, but may not be able to stand up against the slew of higher profile projects coming this fall.

While we know very little about films like “Saltburn,” “Nyad,” “The Bikeriders,” and “The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat,” which are said to have some Best Supporting Actress possibilities, we do know that the original film adaptation of “The Color Purple” had two nominees here, so all eyes are on Danielle Brooks and Taraji P. Henson as Sophia and Shug Avery, to see if they can follow in Oprah Winfrey and Margaret Avery’s footsteps. 

Also, though there have been very critical readings of the female characters in Christopher Nolan’s past films, “Oppenheimer” does actually look like a great showcase for Emily Blunt and Florence Pugh.

Contenders are listed in alphabetical order, below. No actor will be deemed a frontrunner until I have seen the film.

Frontrunners:
Hong Chau (“Showing Up”)
Viola Davis (“Air”)
Lily Gladstone (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
Anne Hathaway (“Eileen”)
Rachel McAdams (“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret”)

Contenders:
Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”)
Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
Danielle Deadwyler (“The Piano Lesson”)
Taraji P. Henson (“The Color Purple”)
Vanessa Kirby (“Napoleon”)
Patti LuPone (“Beau Is Afraid”)
Lashana Lynch (“Bob Marley: One Love”)
Julianne Moore (“May December”)
Florence Pugh (“Oppenheimer”)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)

Long Shots:
Patricia Clarkson (“Monica”)
Beanie Feldstein (“Drive-Away Dolls”)
America Ferrera (“Barbie”)
Sally Hawkins (“Wonka”)
Scarlett Johansson (“Asteroid City”)
Cara Jade Myers (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
Niousha Noor (“The Persian Version”)
Margaret Qualley (“Poor Things”)
Isabella Rossellini (“La Chimera”)
Tilda Swinton (“Problemista”)