Trump puts Iowa victory at risk with attack on GOP governor

Former President Trump is taking a risk in targeting Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds (R), picking a fight with an influential and well-liked figure in the first state on next year’s GOP presidential primary calendar.

Trump narrowly finished second in the Iowa caucuses in 2016 but went on to win the GOP nomination, something he could easily repeat this cycle. However, an underwhelming performance in the Hawkeye State in 2024 could open the door to a viable challenger building momentum early in the primary calendar.

Trump, apparently irked by Reynolds’s recent appearances with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) and his wife, Casey, and triggered by a New York Times story highlighting the tensions between the former president and the governor, chastised Reynolds in a social media post Monday over whether she is being “neutral” in the primary process.

The Truth Social post was typical of Trump, who is quick to call out those he deems as insufficiently loyal. But the move left some in the state scratching their heads and may further alienate voters who were already considering an alternative heading into next year’s caucus.

“Forest Gump says, ‘stupid is as stupid does.’ My Mom says don't call anyone, ‘stupid.’ So, I won't. However, this isn't smart. Iowa is wide open,” tweeted Bob Vander Plaats, head of The Family Leader, a major conservative group in Iowa.

Reynolds had previously said she would remain neutral in the 2024 primary so that all candidates would feel welcome to campaign there. She has appeared with DeSantis and with former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) around the state.

In his post, Trump took credit for clearing the way for Reynolds to become governor when he appointed her predecessor, Terry Branstad, to an ambassadorship. 

Reynolds has since established herself on her own terms. She coasted to reelection last year by roughly 20 percentage points as the GOP made gains in the state Legislature, and she signed into law bills restricting abortion access and transgender rights.

Some in the state found the criticism of Reynolds to be uncalled for and the type of undisciplined move that has hurt Trump in the past.

“Ok… so we shouldn’t remain neutral?” tweeted Cody Hoefert, a former chairman of the Iowa GOP. “Well then after this I’m out on the former President. It’s time for fresh leadership or shall I say actual leadership. I am open to support a new fresh leader who inspires others.”

Trump’s broadside against Reynolds marked the latest instance of the former president rolling the dice with an unusual strategy in Iowa, which will host its caucus Jan. 15 to kick off the Republican presidential primary calendar.

Trump has held multiple rallies this year in Iowa but has not attended major gatherings for presidential candidates, including Sen. Joni Ernst’s (R-Iowa) “Roast and Ride.” He addressed a major gathering of evangelicals in the state earlier in the year virtually rather than in-person. 

Vander Plaats confirmed Tuesday that Trump would not attend his group’s summit Friday in Des Moines, where former Fox News host Tucker Carlson is set to interview several 2024 candidates.

By comparison, candidates including former Vice President Pence and DeSantis have already invested significant time and resources in Iowa, viewing a strong finish in the Hawkeye State as critical to building momentum early in the primary calendar and rallying support from voters who want an alternative to Trump.

It is not the first time Trump has upended traditional campaigning styles in Iowa, where the caucus-style voting typically requires candidates and their campaigns to have well-organized staff on the ground, going door-to-door to connect with voters.

Trump in 2016 opted to hold larger events, using his name recognition and the energy among his supporters to finish in second place, roughly 3 percentage points behind Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).

This time around, Trump is still holding large rallies in the state to gin up enthusiasm, but his campaign includes more staffing on the ground working to solidify his standing among voters who typically turn out to caucus.

National polls have consistently shown Trump with a double-digit lead over DeSantis and other candidates in the primary field, and those numbers have remained stable for months.

Iowa-specific polls have been more scarce, but the Iowa Poll conducted last March showed Trump’s favorability numbers in the state were similar to DeSantis and higher than Haley or Pence.

The poll did highlight some potential cracks in Trump’s support among Iowa Republicans, however, with the number of voters who said they would definitely support him if he were the nominee dropping roughly 20 percentage points since June 2021.

“Republicans generally liked his policies as president as opposed to his style, but he certainly has a fair amount of support,” Tim Hagle, an associate professor of political science at the University of Iowa, said in an interview.

“I don’t put a whole lot of stock in polls, especially for the caucus because it’s notoriously hard to poll for,” Hagle added. “Still, you can’t ignore polls entirely, and Trump is fairly far ahead. But I think it's still a matter of waiting to see what's going to happen when we get closer to the caucus.”