Today's Mortgage and Refinance Rates: July 12, 2023 | Rates Finally Drop

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After increasing consistently over the past couple of weeks, mortgage rates have finally receded somewhat. Average 30-year mortgage rates are now nearly 20 basis points lower than they were a week ago.  

Mortgage rates have spiked in recent weeks as the Federal Reserve gears up for another rate hike later this month. Though there was some speculation earlier this year that the Fed would soon stop hiking the federal funds rate and possibly start cutting this rate toward the end of 2023, the latest economic data has tempered these expectations.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets now generally expect the Fed to increase the federal funds rate at its July meeting then pause for the rest of the year, with no rate cuts until 2024.

This means that borrowers should expect mortgage rates to remain elevated in the near term. But as we get more inflation data in the coming months, rates could start to ease if the data shows that price growth has decelerated to an acceptable level.

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Mortgage Rate Projection for 2023

Mortgage rates started ticking up from historic lows in the second half of 2021 and increased over three percentage points in 2022.

But many forecasts expect rates to begin to fall later this year. In their latest forecast, Fannie Mae researchers predicted that 30-year fixed rates will trend down throughout 2023 and 2024.

But whether mortgage rates will drop in 2023 hinges on if the Federal Reserve can get inflation under control.

In the last 12 months, the Consumer Price Index rose by 4%. Inflation has consistently been decelerating for several months now, and the Fed paused rates hikes last week for the first time in 15 months. This means that mortgage rates aren't likely to increase significantly any time soon, and they'll likely continue to cool along with prices.

For homeowners looking to leverage their home's value to cover a big purchase — such as a home renovation — a home equity line of credit (HELOC) may be a good option while we wait for mortgage rates to ease. Check out some of our best HELOC lenders to start your search for the right loan for you.

A HELOC is a line of credit that lets you borrow against the equity in your home. It works similarly to a credit card in that you borrow what you need rather than getting the full amount you're borrowing in a lump sum. It also lets you tap into the money you have in your home without replacing your entire mortgage, like you'd do with a cash-out refinance.

Current HELOC rates are relatively low compared to other loan options, including credit cards and personal loans. 

When Will House Prices Come Down?

Home prices declined a bit on a monthly basis late last year, but we aren't likely to see huge drops this year, even if there's a recession.

Fannie Mae researchers expect prices to decline 1.2% in 2023, while the Mortgage Bankers Association expects no decrease in 2023 and a 1% decrease in 2024.

Sky high mortgage rates have pushed many hopeful buyers out of the market, slowing homebuying demand and putting downward pressure on home prices. But rates may start to drop next year, which would remove some of that pressure. The current supply of homes is also historically low, which will likely keep prices from dropping too far.

Fixed-Rate vs. Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Pros and Cons

Fixed-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the entire life of your loan. Adjustable-rate mortgages lock in your rate for the first few years, then your rate goes up or down periodically.

ARMs typically start with lower rates than fixed-rate mortgages, but ARM rates can go up once your initial introductory period is over. If you plan on moving or refinancing before the rate adjusts, an ARM could be a good deal. But keep in mind that a change in circumstances could prevent you from doing these things, so it's a good idea to think about whether your budget could handle a higher monthly payment.

Fixed-rate mortgage are a good choice for borrowers who want stability, since your monthly principal and interest payments won't change throughout the life of the loan (though your mortgage payment could increase if your taxes or insurance go up).

But in exchange for this stability, you'll take on a higher rate. This might seem like a bad deal right now, but if rates increase further in a few years, you might be glad to have a rate locked in. And if rates trend down, you may be able to refinance to snag a lower rate 

How Does an Adjustable-Rate Mortgage Work?

ARMs start with an introductory period where your rate will remain fixed for a certain period of time. Once that period is up, it will begin to adjust periodically — typically once per year or once every six months.

How much your rate will change depends on the index that the ARM uses and the margin set by the lender. Lenders choose the index that their ARMs use, and this rate can trend up or down depending on current market conditions.

The margin is the amount of interest a lender charges on top of the index. You should shop around with multiple lenders to see which one offers the lowest margin.

ARMs also come with limits on how much they can change and how high they can go. For example, an ARM might be limited to a 2% increase or decrease every time it adjusts, with a maximum rate of 8%.