'Mission: Impossible 7' Offers Summer Box Office Hope and Caution

Despite a franchise-best five-day opening, Ethan Hunt and the rest of the IMF (Impossible Mission Force) opened lower than many Hollywood insiders expected. They could, however, still buoy the summer box office as industry prognosticators had prayed they would.

Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One opened last Wednesday and earned $80 million dollars across its first five days of release in North America, including $56.2 million from Friday through Sunday. Going into the weekend, Paramount and Skydance had predicted a $60 million three-day opening for their latest sequel.

Instead, it notched second-best placement for the series, between 2018’s Mission: Impossible – Fallout ($61 million) and 2000’s Mission: Impossible II ($57.8 million) in terms of three-day openings.

It gets tricky, though, because Dead Reckoning actually grossed more in its first five days than either M:I II ($78.8 million) or Fallout ($77.5 million). As such, it's still possible that Dead Reckoning could juice the waning summer blockbuster season.

Historically, the Mission: Impossible movies overcome sluggish starts to knock out their competition. Fallout, for example, went on to earn nearly $800 million worldwide after its somewhat soft $61 million opening.

Dead Reckoning earned a further $155 million overseas, propelling its global take to $235 million. Although the overseas results were much better, studios typically earn a lower percentage of ticket sales outside North America, meaning results will have to be stronger in order to make up the gap.

Whether or not it can hang on at the North American box office amidst the buzzy dual releases Barbie and Oppenheimer is yet to be determined. Paramount is certainly hoping for a reprisal of their success with last year’s Maverick, which grossed an astonishing $1.4 billion worldwide and stayed in cinemas through the holiday season.

While it’s unlikely Dead Reckoning will make anything close to that impact, it doesn’t appear it will disgrace the franchise either. The series, while popular stateside, has always done a vast majority of its business overseas.

Rogue Nation made $195 million domestically and $487 overseas, while Fallout took $220 in North America and $570 internationally. Notice, too, that those numbers get higher with each sequel. Most franchises make less money as they age.

With that in mind, Ethan Hunt may yet save the summer box office from flops such as Indiana Jones and The Flash.

Tom Cruise is scheduled to return as Ethan Hunt in next year's follow-up, Dead Reckoning Part Two, though due to an interruption in filming because of the SAG-AFTRA strike, Part Two may see its release date delayed.