There's only one way Trump can win in 2024

Donald Trump has one path to winning the 2024 presidential election — that is, of course, if he wins the GOP nomination and avoids a federal criminal conviction. It’s the same path that helped him win in 2016. Ironically, he has virtually no control over that path, because it depends on someone else — a viable third-party candidate.

Neither Trump nor President Joe Biden is popular with voters. A recent Morning Consult poll found that in a Biden-Trump rematch, 43 percent of registered voters say they would support Biden, while 42 percent would support Trump. Importantly, 10 percent said they would support someone else and 5 percent didn’t know.

Of course, it’s not the popular vote that wins presidential elections. It’s the Electoral College.

Trump won in 2016 primarily because he added three states (Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin) to the Republican column that had voted Democratic in presidential elections for decades. But rather than saying Trump “won” those three states, it’s probably more accurate to say third-party candidates cost Clinton those states.

Trump won Pennsylvania by 47,292 votes, Michigan by 10,704 votes, and Wisconsin by 22,748 — the slimmest of margins. He did not reach 50 percent in any of them. This is because both the Libertarian Party candidate, Gary Johnson, and the Green Party candidate, Jill Stein, attracted many more votes than third (or fourth) parties usually do.

Johnson garnered 3.3% of the vote nationwide. He received 172,136 votes (3.6%) in Michigan, 146,715 votes (2.4%) in Pennsylvania, and 106,674 votes in Wisconsin (3.6%). While Johnson may have siphoned off some anti-Trump Republicans, his more liberal-leaning positions on social issues may have attracted a number of Democratic-leaning voters.

Moreover, though Stein’s vote tally was low, she received more votes than Trump’s margin of victory in the three states: 51,463 for Stein in Michigan vs. Trump’s margin of 10,704; 31,072 for Stein in Wisconsin vs. Trump’s 22,748, and 49,941 for Stein in Pennsylvania vs. Trump’s 47,292.

Without credible third-party candidates in 2016, Clinton likely would have won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — and thus the presidency.

The 2020 presidential contest was different. Third-party candidates played a smaller role. Only 1.8 percent voted for someone other than Trump or Biden. That fact —plus Trump’s penchant for turning off independents, suburban women, and many Republicans — cost him the election.

The 2024 campaign is gearing up and it’s possible, even probable, that the country could see a Biden-Trump rematch — something most voters dread.

There are lots of GOP challengers for the presidential nomination, but so far they haven’t gained much traction. Trump remains by far the preferred candidate among Republicans, though not the public.

Trump’s support is an inch wide and a mile deep. His supporters are dedicated, but there aren’t that many of them. By contrast, Biden’s support is a mile wide and an inch deep. Millions of Americans voted for him because he wasn’t Trump. And many of them could be persuaded to vote for someone else, such as a reasonable third-party candidate, who also isn’t Trump.

How likely is it a third-party candidate will enter the race?

A bipartisan group called “No Labels” is meeting this week to consider the current situation and discuss whether to support a third-party challenge. The group includes some prominent political figures and financial backers.

Democrats are doing their best to dissuade the group from backing a third-party challenge, claiming it would likely siphon votes from the Democratic candidate and give Trump the win — just like 2016.

But while the No Labels crowd doesn’t like Trump, they are also concerned about Biden’s age and dramatic shift to the left. They would rather see a reasonable, and more politically moderate, third option.

In addition, leftist philosophy professor Cornel West is considering running as the Green Party candidate for president. If that occurs, he would only attract far-left voters who might otherwise vote for Biden. 

Without a viable third-party candidate, most voters would likely hold their nose and vote for Biden again.

So, we may be back to a Biden-Trump rematch, with one or more third-party candidates on the ballot. It’s hard to know how voters would respond to that development, considering how little enthusiasm there is for such a rematch. But if Trump has a chance of winning, the emergence of a viable third-party candidate is likely his only path to victory.

Merrill Matthews is a resident scholar with the Institute for Policy Innovation in Dallas, Texas. Follow him on Twitter @MerrillMatthews.