Who Wins More Games: AL Central Champ Or Last Place In AL East?
For as great as the American League East has been this season, the AL Central is atrocious.
All five teams in the East, baseball’s best division are over .500 paced by the Tampa Bay Rays sitting at 60-37 and the Baltimore Orioles right behind the Rays at 57-36. Meanwhile, only one AL Central team — the 48-47 Minnesota Twins — has a winning record.
Woof.
WynnBET posted a very creative betting market Monday that allows you to bet on which team will finish with more regular-season wins: the first-place team in the AL Central or the last-place team in the AL East.
Early money from respected bettors showed on the AL Central champion almost immediately. WynnBET opened -120 / +100 and that line is out to -140 / +120.
So you can get the Blue Jays or Red Sox or Yankees at a nice plus price.
Let’s compare WynnBET’s market to adjusted win totals at Caesars.
Current AL Central win totals:
Twins – 84.5
Guardians – 81.5
White Sox – 73
Tigers – 72.5
Royals – 52
Current AL East win totals:
Rays – 95.5
Orioles – 91
Blue Jays – 91
Yankees – 86.5
Red Sox – 84.5
Caesars is basically saying the Red Sox and Twins are numerical equals, but the problem with adjusted in-season win totals is that sportsbooks have to mostly account for rosters as is. However, AL Central underachievers like the Chicago White Sox and Detroit Tigers should definitely sell at the deadline.
Why would the pathetic White Sox keep starting pitchers Lucas Giolito and Lance Lynn if they’re almost 20 games under .500 heading into the final week of July?
“That’s why we bet the AL Central champ,” one professional bettor told NESN. “You have to forecast what these teams will look like in August and September. Every single AL East team is in the playoff hunt right now. You think the (last-place) Yankees are going to suddenly wave the white flag?
“Minnesota will feast on an even more depleted division down the stretch.”
The equation will get even more interesting if the Red Sox blow a tire in the ensuing two weeks and start dropping games left and right. Players like James Paxton, Adam Duvall and Kiké Hernández could all help playoff contenders and maybe a veteran bat like Justin Turner draws attention, too.
Just because Kenley Jansen wants the Sox to add doesn’t mean it’ll happen.
I’m still inclined to agree with the market move and believe the Twins have an easier path to more wins than the worst AL East team. Minnesota’s division could part like the Red Sea if most of its challengers sell or quit or both.
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