Ohio GOP braces for critical primary in bid to oust Sherrod Brown

Republicans are gearing up for a competitive primary as they look to unseat Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in next year’s closely watched Ohio Senate race.

Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose (R) became the latest Republican to announce his candidacy earlier this week, joining a crowded field that includes businessman Bernie Moreno and state Sen. Matt Dolan (R).

Brown, a third-term incumbent, is seen as one of the most vulnerable Senate Democrats up for reelection next year, and the race could be key to deciding which party wins control of the upper chamber in the 2024 election.

“It's going to be a dogfight to defeat Sherrod Brown. I don’t think anybody would say anything otherwise. If they did, they don’t know Ohio,” said one GOP strategist in the state who’s backing LaRose. “Whoever the nominee is, is going to have to run an A-plus campaign.”

Dolan ran for Ohio’s other Senate seat in the midterms last year but lost in the GOP primary to Trump-endorsed Republican JD Vance, who went on to win the general election. Dolan was the first to get in the 2024 race with the hopes of challenging Brown, followed by Moreno — who also lodged a bid for the open Senate seat in the midterms but eventually dropped out of the crowded Republican primary. 

This time around, Moreno has Vance’s endorsement. LaRose, the newest addition to the race, is the only one of the three who has won a statewide election. His role as secretary of state has upped his name recognition among many Ohio voters, but he’s also facing scrutiny related to a controversial ballot initiative in the state’s August special election.

The nonpartisan election handicapper Cook Political Report rates Brown’s seat as a “toss-up,” along with those held by Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I) and West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin (D).

Former President Obama won Ohio in 2008 and 2012, while Trump won in 2016 and 2020, when he took the state by 8 points. Vance won the state by 6 points during the midterms against then-Rep. Tim Ryan (D).

“Ohio will be even redder than it was this last cycle, so Sherrod Brown is in deep trouble. This is why you have a crowded field,” said Ohio-based GOP strategist Mark Weaver, who also predicted the primary race will be fairly close between the Republican candidates. 

“The primary will be more interesting than the general, although the general will be making some noise,” Weaver said. “But because Ohio is reliably red, because Sherrod Brown is uniquely weak, this is an easy Republican pickup with the right candidate. So the primary will be far more important than the general as far as national impact.”

Still, Democrats are projecting a show of confidence. State party spokesperson Reeves Oyster said in a statement after LaRose’s announcement Monday that “the Republican ‘slugfest’ for Ohio’s Senate seat is shaping up to be another long, contentious battle that will leave whoever emerges damaged in the eyes of Ohio voters.”  

Ohio GOP spokesman Dan Lusheck fired back, saying the state’s Democrats "are so weak and have lost so many elections, that they would be lucky to even find two quality candidates to run against each other. Thankfully, Ohio Republicans do not have that problem."

Brown has a long-standing presence in the state. The Democrat incumbent has served in the Senate since 2007 and held LaRose’s position as Ohio secretary of state in the 1980s and early 1990s. Brown secured reelection in 2018 by nearly 7 points over then-Rep. Jim Renacci (R-Ohio).

“At the 10,000-foot level, I think it’s Sherrod Brown’s first time he’s really gonna be in trouble,” said GOP pollster Robert Blizzard. He said the sitting senator is a strong competitor but has benefited from “a national environment that has been tilted more toward Democrats” in his previous statewide races.

“Brown is probably the most vulnerable Democrat incumbent in the country,” Blizzard said. He also highlighted Ohio is “in many ways, gonna be ground zero for winning the Senate majority this cycle.”

The pollster argued the senator has moved further left over the years, while his state appears to be shifting to the right. He predicted the eventual Republican presidential nominee will win Ohio in 2024, making it “very difficult for there to be any kind of coattail effect” for Brown. 

“Whoever wins the primary, I mean — [for] Sherrod Brown, it’s going to be his toughest reelection,” said former Ohio Democratic Party chairman David Pepper. 

But Pepper shrugged off the newest entrant to the race, comparing LaRose to Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who launched a bid for the White House in late May, well after Trump kicked off his campaign in November. He argued LaRose has “taken so long to announce” he’s allowed the other candidates to “get in front of him.” 

“It reminds me of the DeSantis run-up, where he waited a long time. Other people have sort of outmaneuvered him, and now I think are positioned to take up the lanes that are the big ones, and I just don't see where LaRose fits in,” Pepper said.

The GOP strategist backing LaRose suggested all three Republicans in the Ohio Senate ring could win in November, but he forecasted LaRose is “the one that, I think, Sherrod Brown fears the most.” 

Weaver, the other strategist, also forecasted LaRose could be the front-runner, but said the secretary of state will need to keep up with Dolan and Moreno’s ability to self-fund and said he’s not far in front of his competitors.

“Bernie, Matt and Frank all have somewhat of a blank canvas. There's still room for them to paint — LaRose being in the best position in that regard — but all of them have a lot of canvas left to paint,” Weaver said.

Blizzard, on the other hand, said Dolan will likely lead the field, noting LaRose “has never been in a competitive primary situation before” and that Moreno dropped out during his last effort.

Ahead of Moreno’s announcement, Trump praised Moreno in an April post on Truth Social as a “highly respected businessman,” saying “he would not be easy to beat, especially against Brown.” 

Before LaRose had officially entered the race, the elections forecaster Sabato’s Crystal Ball said, “We wouldn’t describe any of the potential Republican Senate nominees in Ohio as slam dunk candidates, but any of them would be capable of winning a Toss-up race.”

The Ohio GOP said LaRose, Dolan and Moreno “are all strong conservatives committed to challenging Biden’s failed policies that have hurt everyday Ohioans.” 

"Republican voters deserve a robust, thoughtful primary where they can decide which candidate is best suited to end career politician Sherrod Brown's time in office,” said Ohio GOP chairman Alex Triantafilou.

But the Ohio Democrats said in a Tuesday release that “a long, brutal, and expensive primary is taking shape in Ohio and no matter who emerges, they will have spent months focused on infighting — instead of fighting for Ohioans — leaving them bruised and badly damaged entering the general election.”

The chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.), told CBS News last week that his group, which has weighed in on GOP primaries in other states, plans to stay neutral in the Ohio race. 

Pepper, the former Ohio Democratic Party chairman, said he thinks Brown still has a path to victory but that the incumbent shouldn’t take anything for granted.

“I think that next year is going to be a really fierce general election,” he said.