Open Championship Picks: Best Bets For Royal Liverpool Bash

The golf world comes together for the season’s final major this weekend at Royal Liverpool Golf Club as the Open Championship returns to Hoylake.

A sensational major season concludes with the sport’s most prestigious tournament where the champion golfer of the year will be crowned.

Here’s what to expect from the course, one final look at the odds board and a few picks for the weekend.

ROYAL LIVERPOOL GOLF CLUB
Par: 71
Yardage: 7,383 yards
Defending champion: Cameron Smith
Last Liverpool champion: Rory McIlroy (2014)

The 151st Open is the 13th held at Royal Liverpool. The two most recent winners here were McIlroy in 2014 and Tiger Woods in 2006, so the cream tends to rise to the top.

Tight fairways present an obvious test this week. You’ll have to keep the ball in the fairway and avoid potentially disastrous fairway bunkers. It appears distance will be an asset, too, with recent rain softening the course and keeping the runout to a minimum. That would be similar to how it played in 2014 when McIlroy won and vastly different from 2006 when Woods tackled a burned-out track without having to hit driver.

THE FAVORITES (via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Scottie Scheffler +650
Rory McIlroy +750
Jon Rahm +1200
Brooks Koepka +1800
Cameron Smith +2200
Patrick Cantlay +2200
Viktor Hovland +25000
Xander Schauffele +2500
Rickie Fowler +2800
Tyrrell Hatton +2800
Tommy Fleetwood +3000
Jordan Spieth +3000

Pick to win: Brooks Koepka (+1800)
Scheffler is the deserved favorite, and if the putts even slightly start to fall, he’s going to run away with it. But for a little more value, let’s circle Koepka, who seems due for a British breakthrough. He obviously won the PGA Championship and looks like the majors killer he was earlier in his career. He’s got the perfect combination of length and accuracy off the tee but also is great with long irons if the course plays super long. He’s also not going to be bothered by the weather.

Long shot to pick: Brian Harman (120-1)
If distance really is the big thing, he might be porked. But Harman tends to hang around on big-boy major tracks. If it doesn’t play super-long, he might be right in the mix. Harman finished T-6 last year after a T-19 finish in 2021. He’s on a run of three straight top-12 finishes, including a pair of star-studded fields at Travelers and the Scottish Open. He’s accurate off the tee, hits long irons well and scrambles like few others.

Bryson DeChambeau (+110) over Matt Fitzpatrick
Fitzpatrick earlier this week told reporters he’d be happy with a top-30 finish this week. That sort of expectation doesn’t exactly scream confidence. DeChambeau, meanwhile, has kind of found himself. He finished fourth at the PGA and 20th at the U.S. Open, in addition to four straight top-11 finishes on LIV.

Padraig Harrington top-20 finish (+430)
The 51-year-old is on a Champions Tour roll. His worst finish in the last two months is T18 at the U.S. Senior Open; he finished second at the Senior PGA Championship and won a tournament in late June. He has six top-10 finishes in eight starts. He’s playing well when still teeing it up on Tour, too. Harrington has made all six cuts on Tour this season, including a T27 at the U.S. Open. He’s full of confidence and truly believes he can make the Ryder Cup team and has the game to back it up. He’s long and straight off the tee, which should be vital to success at Hoylake. It’s asking a lot, but it’s a pretty good price.

Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im missed-cut parlay (+575)
All right, so this one is a bit of a long shot, too, but we’re gambling here. Thomas can’t find his game right now, missing the cut in three of his last five starts. He missed the cut at the Masters, too. He hasn’t finished better than 53rd in a major since last year’s U.S. Open. He has been a mess off the tee. Im, on the other hand, does fit the profile, but this is a strict fade of his Open history. In two starts, he missed a cut and finished 81st, and he just missed the cut at the Scottish Open last week.

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