No one can predict the 2024 outcome, but here are five indicators to watch

Last week, The New York Times laughably labeled the 2022 midterms a "red flag" for Democrats in 2024 because Republican voters turned out at higher rates than Democrats—a dynamic entirely consistent with historical norms for the out-party not in control of the White House.

What was actually unusual in '22 was the fact that Democrats outperformed Republicans with independent voters, a phenomenon that deviated from historical norms for the party controlling the White House.

But the Times article does prompt a more searching question in these routinely ahistorical times: What indicators actually offer potentially useful information about the upcoming cycle?

It's a conundrum to some extent since the midterms turned conventional wisdom on its head. Due to President Joe Biden's lackluster job approval ratings and the country's dismal right track/wrong track numbers—two data points that historically would suggest trouble ahead for Democrats—most prognosticators predicted huge Democratic losses.  

But a truism recently mentioned on the Hacks on Tap podcast is worth remembering: In many ways, Republicans lost the midterms more than Democrats won them. Republicans, aided by the bumbling hand of Donald Trump, ran a terrible slate of MAGA candidates who were broadly obsessed with 2020 election denial. On top of that, the D.C. ecosphere of male pundits and analysts entirely misjudged the political fallout of a Supreme Court ruling that set women's rights and reproductive health care back 50 years.