MLB Best Bets: A Pair of Plays in Tonight’s Rangers-Astros Game
We are returning to Houston for the final game of the Lone Star series tonight between the Rangers and Astros. The Astros have taken the first two games of this three-game series, and they are now only one game behind the first-place Rangers in the AL West.
SI Sportsbook believes Houston will win this one (-188), and I’m sure there are many reasons why. Perhaps most notable is the expected return of Yordan Alvarez and Jose Altuve to the lineup. These two stars have only played in 13 games together this season due to various injuries, and this is certainly a big moment for them to return. There’s no value in that ML bet, though, so let’s look at another option.
Andrew Heaney gets the start on the road for the Rangers. We targeted Heaney last week for a winning/over bet, and we are using the same logic today. Heaney has an ERA of 5.63 since the beginning of June (eight starts), and he hasn’t made it out of the sixth inning since May 27. Heaney’s barrel rate and average exit velocity allowed are in the bottom 15% of the league, and that should spell trouble vs. this Astros lineup. Just last week, Kyle Tucker had a three-home-run game vs. a left-handed starter. The Astros rank ninth with a .261 batting average, .437 SLG (ninth), and .176 ISO vs. left-handed pitching in 2023.
Framber Valdez gets the start for the Astros, and though on the surface his 2.94 ERA looks elite, he has struggled a bit lately due to some calf issues. The lefty’s ERA across three starts in July is 5.71. Valdez is a ground ball pitcher and he will need to make sure he keeps the ball down, as his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the bottom 12% of the league. As good as the Astros are vs. lefties, the Rangers are even better. Texas ranks second in OPS (.823), second in SLG (.465), third in batting average (.287) and eighth in ISO (.179). Valdez is the superior pitcher but must be on his game tonight.
The Rangers bullpen remains bottom-four in the league and surrendered a walk-off win two nights ago when we cashed our ML bet. The Astros bullpen has been shaky in July. Add that these offenses are stacked and have a lot to play for, and we should expect fireworks tonight at the juice box.