How Mr. Nice Guy Tim Scott can slay Trump and win the nomination
In politics, nice guys may not finish last, but they rarely win — especially for president. But Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) is giving it a try, at least according to the DC commentariat. But that’s not Scott’s real strategy; the Palmetto State senator is playing a more complex game, ready to drop the nice guy routine when conditions are right.
Right now, Scott is floating along behind Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and far behind Donald Trump for the GOP nomination. At the time of the writing of this article, he has just 3 percent support in the RealClearPolitics average, with his best poll at 6 percent. Scott is trailing Mike Pence and Nikki Haley, and has been passed by newcomer Vivek Ramaswamy. He is doing better in New Hampshire and Iowa, with 8 percent and 7 percent, respectively. But he still trails DeSantis by approximately 15 points. Even if Trump drops, it is hard to see how Scott climbs above the rest of the field.
Unless Trump gives Scott his endorsement.
And that is what Scott’s strategy looks like. Fly under the radar, stay positive, keep on Trump’s good side and hope his legal troubles derail him at the right time. That strategy seems to be working at least a bit. Scott has the lowest disapproval of any Republican, at just 12 percent in the most recent Morning Consult poll.
Scott will need the Trump nod, as he has not established himself as an alternative to Trump on his own. In the July 11 YouGov poll, Scott was the second choice of just 8 percent of voters, in a clump with Ramaswamy (9 percent), Pence (8 percent) and Haley (6 percent), but well behind DeSantis (35 percent). Morning Consult was worse for Scott, putting him as the second choice of just 6 percent with DeSantis at 40 percent, Ramaswamy at 17 percent and Pence at 14 percent.
Scott does seem the most likely to get the nod from Trump, should Trump drop out. The former president has said positive things about Scott, but also about Ramaswamy. Pence is out, as Trump views him as costing Trump the presidency in 2020. Haley likely sank her chances with her proposed “senility test.” As a political neophyte, Ramaswamy has no real connection to Trump, and the losses by Trump-backed newcomers in 2022 hurts Ramaswamy by association. Trump could swallow his pride and endorse DeSantis if the Florida governor looks like a clear general election winner, but that’s a hard turn for Trump to make.
The process of elimination leads to Scott. But it also means Scott is stuck in a holding pattern, working to avoid any hint of controversy.
But what Scott really needs is a favorable court calendar and Trump to snap into reality at the right time, while Trump hangs on to at least a strong plurality of Republican voters. The best-case scenario is for Trump to lock down the nomination and bail before the GOP convention and enough Republican delegates agreeing to treat the nomination as Trump’s inheritance to be passed down (not a sure thing).
If Trump withdraws before the primaries or drops out after losing in Iowa and/or New Hampshire, Scott could still ride a Trump endorsement to the nomination. But Scott has to be able to close the deal with voters. Even if that strategy fails and Trump is out early, Scott would still be in prime position for the VP slot.
The nightmare scenario is Trump doggedly staying in, grabbing the nomination and naming Scott as his running mate. Scott could (and should) turn it down. That would damage him with the MAGA faithful, but serving on a ticket with Trump would be worse. Scott would be expected to defend every act and utterance. Given Trump’s behavior the past two years, Scott would be stuck defending plenty of craziness. Not to mention that Scott will get the blame from Trump if he sticks it out through November and loses.
A Trump departure during the general election campaign would be an ungodly mess in and of itself. Such a departure could follow a conviction or a polling collapse following a conviction. Even the most skilled politician would find such a course of events nearly impossible to finesse. The later Trump exits, the more trouble. And it is not out of the question that Trump pulls out too late to take his name off the ballot. It is plausible Tim Scott and the Republican Party would be asking voters to pull the Trump lever and assuring them it would be Scott who becomes president.
Scott is risking it all on how and when the wheels of justice grind away and on the erratic mind of Trump. That’s a narrow path, but Tim Scott does have a path — unlike most of the Republican field.
Keith Naughton, Ph.D., is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm. Naughton is a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant. Follow him on Twitter @KNaughton711.