System east of Caribbean unlikely to develop as hurricane season begins to ‘ramp up’

The National Hurricane Center was monitoring only one disturbance with low chances of forming in the Atlantic on Wednesday, but that is likely the calm before the storm.

Hurricane season is only beginning to “ramp up,” Michael Brennan, the director of the National Hurricane Center, said in a briefing Tuesday, despite the fact that the Atlantic has already seen five named storms this year.

The “vast majority” of activity will happen in the next three months, Brennan said as he pointed to a diagram of hurricane and tropical storm activity over the course of the season. “You can see the rapid increase we see over the next month to six weeks … as the Atlantic hurricane season reaches its peak in early September.”

The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring one disturbance, a tropical wave located about 475 miles southeast of Bermuda early Wednesday.

Earlier this week, odds were high — at 70 to 80% — that a tropical depression could form east of the Caribbean from the tropical wave. By 8 a.m. Wednesday, odds of further development stood at only 10%. It is expected to merge with a frontal system over the north central Atlantic in the next 48 hours or so.

“Even though things might seem relatively quiet right now, that’s not that unusual for late July and early August,” Brennan said. “But we do tend to see that ramp up in activity as we head through August, September, and even lasting well into October.”