‘Abbott Elementary’ and ‘The Bear’ might split acting Emmys right down the middle

It’s possible that only two shows will win comedy acting Emmys when they’re handed out. According to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users as of this writing, “Abbott Elementary” and “The Bear” might do just that.

“Abbott Elementary” won just one acting prize last year — Best Comedy Supporting Actress for Sheryl Lee Ralph — but now it’s the front-runner to win three times: once in lead, once in supporting, and once in guest. In the Best Comedy Actress field, Quinta Brunson is the favorite for her role as an idealistic teacher. She was nominated last year too but lost to Jean Smart (“Hacks”), who luckily for Brunson was ineligible this year.

For Best Comedy Supporting Actor, “Abbott’s” Tyler James Williams is the favorite, even though that category’s two-time defending champ Brett Goldstein (“Ted Lasso”) is back in the running. Earlier this year Williams won the Golden Globe for his role, but “Ted Lasso” wasn’t eligible for those Globes as it didn’t premiere any new episodes during the 2022 calendar year. This category is all over the map, though, with all seven nominees having a legitimate shot at the gold according to some of our most elite pundits. If the race is as close as we think it is, Williams could benefit from being the only “Abbott” nominee in the category against “Ted Lasso” and “Barry” duos who could split votes.

Then there’s Best Comedy Guest Actress. Taraji P. Henson has been the front-runner for a while now for her scene-stealing performance as Brunson’s mother. And with four total Emmy noms in her career, Henson may be considered due for her first victory.

As for “The Bear,” lead actor Jeremy Allen White has been on a role. The Best Comedy Actor front-runner didn’t just win the Golden Globe, he also claimed the SAG Award and Critics Choice Award for his performance as a elite chef trying to run his family business. His biggest threat there is Jason Sudeikis (“Ted Lasso”), who has won the last two Emmys in a row. And much like Tyler James Williams, White didn’t have to face Sudeikis during the winter awards season. Nevertheless, White is in the drivers seat.

For Best Comedy Supporting Actress, Ayo Edebiri has taken the lead after trailing defending champion Sheryl Lee Ralph before the nominations were announced. The relative nominations shortfall for “Abbott” (eight bids, only one more than last year despite ample acclaim and media buzz) may have contributed to Ralph’s slippage.

And while “The Bear” isn’t currently the odds-on favorite to win Best Comedy Guest Actor — that would be reigning champ Nathan Lane (“Only Murders in the Building”) — Jon Bernthal is a close second. Bernthal had limited screen time in season one, for which he’s nominated, but he may benefit from voters who have watched season two, which premiered this summer and boasts a big showcase episode for the actor.

The irony of “Abbott” and “The Bear” potentially splitting up lead, supporting, and guest prizes between them, though, is that neither show is currently favored to win the top award, Best Comedy Series. “Ted Lasso” is tipped to win that one for the third year in a row. “Ted Lasso” received by far the most nominations for a comedy series this year (21, which is also more than “Lasso” has ever received for a season) but ironically isn’t expected to win any above-the-line awards except Best Comedy. So the question going into Emmy night may be whether we’re underestimating the reigning champ across the board. “Abbott” and “The Bear” — watch out.

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