MLB trade deadline analysis: Evaluating SF Giants’ moves, state of NL playoff race
SAN FRANCISCO — The Giants prize pitch selection in their hitters; if it’s not something they can drive, lay off.
At the trade deadline, Farhan Zaidi didn’t get anything in his hot zone.
He laid off, stayed back and let other teams take their hacks. Inevitably, there will be some home runs. There will also be a lot of whiffs. (This is modern baseball, after all.)
“Looking at the landscape of the National League, even post-trade deadline, I don’t really see a seismic shift,” Zaidi said Tuesday. “If the goal is to do something, we could’ve traded half our farm system for a fifth starter. Somebody would’ve happily agreed to that deal. But we didn’t do something just because there was nothing that made sense.”
It wasn’t a particularly active trade market, especially in the National League, and to call the Giants one of the deadline’s losers — at The Athletic, Jim Bowden gave them a ‘D’ grade and called their lack of activity “bizarre” — would be reductive. But, in review, there’s no doubt they upgraded their roster less than any other NL contender.
By not taking the bat off his shoulders, Zaidi is betting on a better chance of drawing a walk than watching strike three go by.
“I just think down the stretch, teams that separate themselves, there’s just as much of a chance that comes from the players they’ve had all season picking it up and playing better (or) a young player coming up from the farm system,” Zaidi said. “A lot of it is just going to come down to who plays the best down the stretch.”
Here’s a look at how the deadline shifted the National League playoff race, with projected Wins Above Replacement totals from FanGraphs and prospect rankings from Baseball America’s midseason organizational top-30 lists.
San Francisco Giants (59-49)
Standing: Second place, NL West (2.5 GB); first place, wild card (+1.0 games)
Trades:
- OF A.J. Pollock and UTIL Mark Mathias from Seattle for PTBNL
Projected WAR added: ±0.0
The Giants are counting on Thairo Estrada, Mitch Haniger and Kyle Harrison to provide more of a boost than any trade deadline acquisition. They need something, with the majors’ most futile offense in July, only two regular starting pitchers and the fifth-most difficult remaining schedule in the league.
Los Angeles Dodgers (60-45)
Standing: First place, NL West (+2.5 games)
Trades:
- RHP Lance Lynn and RHP Joe Kelly from Chicago-AL for RHP Nick Nastrini (#10 prospect), RHP Jordan Leasure (unranked) and OF Trayce Thompson
- UTIL Kike Hernandez from Boston for RHP Nick Robertson (#25 prospect) and RHP Justin Hagenman (unranked)
- IF Amed Rosario from Cleveland for RHP Noah Syndergaard
- LHP Ryan Yarbrough from Kansas City for 1B Devin Mann (#24 prospect) and SS Derlin Figueroa (unranked)
Projected WAR added: +1.8
Leading up to the deadline, manager Dave Roberts spoke of “raising the floor.”
But unlike the polished hardwoods of years past, this one looks like linoleum.
Los Angeles had its eyes set on adding a premium starting pitcher and was thwarted not once, but twice. Dodgers starters rank 25th in MLB in ERA (4.75) and are coming off a July just as dreadful as it was for Giants’ hitters, posting a 6.19 ERA in July, the highest in any month since the franchise moved to Los Angeles.
They watched Justin Verlander reunite with the Astros and Eduardo Rodriguez invoke his no-trade clause. But even lacking the blockbuster that has defined previous Dodgers’ deadlines, the NL West leaders tightened their grip on the division with, according to projections, a better deadline than any other NL contender.
Arizona Diamondbacks (57-51)
Standing: Third place, NL West (4.5 GB); tied-fourth place, wild card (1.0 GB)
Trades:
- RHP Paul Sewald from Seattle for INF Josh Rojas, OF/1B Dominic Canzone (#13 prospect) and INF Ryan Bliss (#16 prospect)
- IF Jace Peterson from Oakland for RHP Chad Patrick (unranked)
- OF Tommy Pham from New York-NL for INF Jeremy Rodriguez (unranked)
- RHP Peter Strzelecki from Milwaukee for LHP Andrew Chafin
Projected WAR added: +0.8
Only in their first year of what should be a long window of contention, with a young core around for years to come, the D-backs didn’t go all in.
They bolstered what has been a bottom-10 bullpen in the majors with the addition of Sewald, a proven closer, but also sold off one of their most reliable relievers, Chafin, to the Brewers. Pham and Peterson lengthen their bench, but they must start by filling the hole opened by dealing the versatile Rojas to Seattle.
Too bad the NL West foes face off only once more after this week — a short two-game series in Arizona in September — because, like baseball’s pennant chase, fantasy football season is nearly upon us. Their pick-up of Pham could have turned this into a multifacted rivalry.
Philadelphia Phillies (58-49)
Standing: Second place, wild card (0.5 GB)
Trades:
- RHP Michael Lorenzen from Detroit for INF Hao-Yu Lee (#8 prospect)
- INF Rodolfo Castro from Pittsburgh for LHP Bailey Falter
Projected WAR added: +0.7
The Phillies, essentially, replaced a pitcher with a 5.13 ERA (Falter) with one who has a 3.58 ERA (Lorenzen). Seems like an upgrade.
Miami Marlins (57-51)
Standing: Tied-fourth place, wild card (2.0 GB)
Trades:
- RHP David Robertson from New York-NL for INF Marco Vargas (#14 prospect) and C Ronald Hernández (unranked)
- LHP Jorge Lopez from Minnesota for RHP Dylan Floro
- 3B Jake Burger from Chicago-NL for LHP Jake Eder (#2 prospect)
- 1B/DH Josh Bell from Cleveland for INF Jean Segura and INF Kahlil Watson (#3 prospect)
Projected WAR added: +0.9
Of the teams listed here, only one (Cincinnati, below) entered the deadline with lower playoff odds than the Marlins. FanGraphs pegged their chances at a postseason birth at about 40%. But no National League contender moved as aggressively.
Zaidi said there were moves to be made if the Giants were willing to pay a premium.
Time will tell if his counterpart in Miami, Kim Ng, regrets paying the price.
Cincinnati Reds (59-50)
Standing: First place, NL Central (+0.5 games); tied-second place, wild card (0.5 GB)
Trades:
- LHP Sam Moll from Oakland for RHP Joe Boyle (unranked)
Projected WAR added: +0.1
The Reds, with postseason odds a tick below Miami, took the opposite track.
Like San Francisco, Cincinnati will bet on its wealth of young players to make a playoff push.
Milwaukee Brewers (58-50)
Standing: Second place, NL Central (0.5 GB); third place, wild card (+0.5 games)
Trades:
- OF Mark Canha from New York-NL for RHP Justin Jarvis (#12 prospect)
- 1B/DH Carlos Santana from Pittsburgh for SS Jhonny Severino (#28 prospect)
- LHP Andrew Chafin from Arizona for RHP Peter Strzelecki
Projected WAR added: +0.7
Like Pollock, Canha is a player the Giants have long desired and likely could have had him at the deadline, too, but opted for the lower-priced option.