Masataka Yoshida Bettors Must Hope Voters Buy This Value Argument

While it was a quiet trade deadline for Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox, Boston fans shouldn’t be too worried.

Alex Cora and crew could have probably used another starting pitcher, but they didn’t need to force a trade there. Health has been the issue, not a lack of talent. Chris Sale, Garret Whitlock and Tanner Houck are all making their way back from injury, and it’s possible the staff is back to full strength sooner than later.

The question with the offense, though, is this: What type of consistency should Boston fans expect from the offense moving forward? Overall, they have ranked among the top teams when it comes to production, but bats have gone quiet when least expected.

While it is tough to predict when the offense will get hot, there does seem to be a trend. When rookie Masataka Yoshida is hitting well — which is more often than not — the Red Sox offense is among baseball’s best. As such, his recent five-game hitless skid coincided with a downward trend for the club.

However, a pair of hits Tuesday night in Seattle should remind fans and bettors to be careful of recency bias. This holds true for Major League baseball voters as well. For Yoshida in particular, Rookie of the Year voters will look at a much larger sample size than just last month’s bumpy stretch.

Even with the slight slump, Yoshida entered Wednesday still leading the team in batting average (.306), on-base percentage (.367) and is tied with Justin Turner in hits (112). Even more impressive, the 30-year-old has displayed elite plate discipline with just 47 strikeouts (the fewest of all qualified Red Sox hitters). His K rate ranks in the 97th percentile, meaning the top 3% of all hitters in baseball.

Not only has the Japanese superstar been a vital addition to Boston’s lineup, but he leads all rookies in best batting average and hits, with the second second-most RBIs and third-most runs.

DraftKings Sportsbook has Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson listed as the +130 favorite for American League Rookie of the Year. Yoshida is second at +200 and Texas Rangers third baseman Josh Jung is not far behind at +260.

Both Henderson and Jung deserve to be in the running, without a doubt. However, I see Yoshida as a more valuable player to his respective team. For example, Josh Jung is on one of the best offenses in baseball, but he has the fifth-best batting average on the team (.270), fifth-best OBP (.319), and third-most hits (111). While impressive, it’s not as impressive as Yoshida leading the veterans on his team. Much of the same can be said for Gunnar Henderson and the Orioles.

Bottom line, the talent is there for Yoshida’s competition, but the Orioles and Rangers wouldn’t miss their rookie as much as the Red Sox would miss their first-year standout.

A $100 bet wins you $200 at DraftKings if Yoshida wins the award.