The Four Potential Realignment Paths of Oregon and Washington

Two contingents hold the cards in different ways to the future of the Pac-12.

First, you have the three remaining Four Corner schools: Arizona, Arizona State and Utah. As Sports Illustrated reported earlier this week, it’s unclear whether both Arizona schools are a package deal due to the fact that they share a board of regents, but the thought earlier in the week is that Arizona is the more moveable of the two in the Big 12’s estimation. Both Arizonas leaving may also take Utah off of the fence and push it to leave the league as well, significantly shifting the Big 12’s footprint even more westward than just Colorado and BYU. But as that decision process rages on another parallel one has emerged further north.

The addition of at least Oregon and Washington is being vetted by the Big Ten, and on multiple fronts, the Pac-12 is looking like it can break apart at seemingly a moment’s notice. There are multiple ways this can go for the Pacific Northwest powers, but the clearest four have their own intrigue and caveats attached.

Oregon and Washington could go to the Big Ten

This one seems like the cut and dry option. Oregon and Washington aren’t being vetted from a school profile sense as much as they’re being vetted from a dollars and cents perspective. There are headwinds though. It’s unclear if all the schools in the Big Ten are actually keen on adding both of them for more than money reasons. Ohio State, for instance, has already pitched a fit about timeslots that aren’t to their liking. Adding more West Coast late timeslots, especially for midweek basketball games, may be something the big fish in the league throw weight around to try and block when it comes down to making a decision on formally extending an invite.

Adding Oregon and Washington adds inventory to the league’s network partners and would probably force the addition of another rights partner beyond FOX, CBS, NBC and the Big Ten Network. That rights partner would be buying a package that is not the highest tier and might rarely feature the league’s biggest draw, and therefore would force calculations on the new rights holders’ end, whether that be ESPN, the CW or a streamer like Apple. This is a fundamental difference between the Big Ten’s speed and the Big 12’s.

The Big 12 can move quickly because their deal would automatically add a Power 5 member at an equal share of revenue, but even then the league may want to be a good partner with FOX and ESPN and take into consideration whether adding Arizona State and Utah to a league that would, if the Wildcats jump, already have teams within an hour and a half in Arizona and BYU. But bear in mind, as ESPN’s president of content Burke Magnus said last summer, rivalries do matter to the networks.

If Oregon and Washington come in at a lower share over the course of the Big Ten’s current media agreement, it would still likely be more guaranteed than the Pac-12’s reported Apple offer on the table, which reportedly has mid-$20M in revenue as a floor with upside if certain subscriber incentives are met, but that is a big if. There are other headwinds, including the Big Ten battling with the perception of not wanting to kill the Pac-12 even though it effectively put it on life support when USC and UCLA left for midwestern pastures a year ago.

A common theme surrounding the Pac-12 as it sits on the brink is that every other party involved is doing the calculus of not actually wanting to be the final nail in its coffin. Similar calculus is being weighed out in Arizona, as both school presidents (Michael Crow and Robert Robbins) have been key executives in the league over the years, including Crow, who is the longest tenured in the Pac-12 having started his job in 2002.

There will also be the question of how much influence USC can have on the situation. Trojans brass felt it was a coup to leave Oregon and Washington in the dust, and there is certainly a recruiting advantage in Southern California homes to be gained in multiple sports when going against the Ducks and the Huskies to say to parents that they won’t able to see their kids play in L.A. if they head north. The Trojans may lobby in the shadows, but they don’t have a formal vote on the situation because they aren’t in the Big Ten themselves yet.

Oregon and Washington could stay in the current Pac-12 or a zombie Pac-12

Put aside the likelihood part of the equation to just unpack what this would mean. Let’s say the corner schools stick around and everyone proceeds, at least in the near future, as 12 teams and they take some form of the Apple deal reported.

While exposure is part of the calculus, another thing to consider in a 12-team College Football Playoff world is access to the dance for Oregon, Washington and Utah. When the Playoff media agreement changes beyond the 2025 season, it’s expected that it will adopt a revenue model that takes into account how many teams a league gets into the field (similar to the NCAA men’s basketball tournament) to pay conferences with multiple teams a bigger share. Could that, combined with subscriber benchmarks, help bridge the revenue gap between the Pac-12 and the Big 12/ACC?

And even if the three Four Corner schools leave, could you replace them with some combination of SMU, San Diego State, potentially a Mountain West School and/or even Gonzaga for their basketball prowess? Combining that with Stanford, Cal, Oregon State and Washington State you’d have something. In that reality, Oregon and Washington could certainly command a higher revenue distribution for a short term to see where the chips fall over the next few years and then make a move. That would certainly face pushback from others in the conference—it’s how the Big 12 nearly died a few years ago—but there may be enough leverage to get this done if, for instance, Oregon State and Washington State’s only options are the Mountain West.

Is it time to call Florida State and Clemson?

Oregon and Washington (and the rest of the Pac-12 schools) could use Florida State and Clemson as a combined lifeline. Whether that’s just as simple as a scheduling agreement or all out joining forces to try and form a third super conference that spans both coasts, there could be a way forward that helps both sets of heavyweights out of their revenue bind.

Both the Seminoles and Tigers were part of the seven ACC schools that explored ways out of the grant of rights agreement earlier this summer. FSU brass has been as overt as any school in recent memory that its tired of the way things are in the ACC, with school president Rick McCoullough saying in a board of regents meeting:

“Our goal would be to stay in the ACC. But staying in the ACC under our current situation is hard for us to figure out how we remain competitive unless there was a major change with the revenue distribution.”

Would it be unwieldy? Yes. But so is UCLA traveling to State College, Pennsylvania. It would also force a challenge to the ACC’s grant of rights, which still has not happened and beyond the cost associated to break it also would come with a thorny legal fight around the copyright provision in it. A full ACC and Pac-12 fusion would be two parts of the ill-fated Alliance proposal that came together after the SEC grabbed Texas and Oklahoma.

If all else fails, could independence work?

It would likely be a short-term fix if it’s even workable at all, but might football independence suit at least Oregon with its Nike cachet? It would have noted downsides (automatic Playoff entry, and scheduling headwinds in football to work around), but perhaps a TV deal could be struck with ESPN to bridge a revenue gap at least for a few years to work out a longer term home that offers at least some stability.