The Jazz Exceeded Expectations Last Year. Now What?

No, the Jazz didn’t reach the playoffs or even the play-in round last season. But given what the initial hopes and expectations were for the squad, in the aftermath of the Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert deals, most Utah fans had to be thrilled with how well the club performed, especially since executive Danny Ainge took his foot off the pedal from a postseason contention standpoint by dealing a number of veteran assets at the trade deadline.

It all figures to make the Jazz, who won 37 games last season under those circumstances, one of the more interesting teams to watch this year. Big man Walker Kessler gets a chance to build on a fantastic rookie season in which he shot 72% and blocked 173 shots, the fourth most in the league. And Lauri Markkanen, an All-Star and the NBA’s reigning Most Improved Player, returns after logging the best campaign of his career, having averaged an impressive 25.6 points and 8.6 rebounds on almost 50% shooting from the field. None of this even touches on the fact that Utah also gets 25-year-old John Collins, who came over from Atlanta via trade for almost nothing: a second-round pick and Rudy Gay, who likely wouldn’t have played much this season, anyway. The deal represents a low-risk, high-reward move that gives the Jazz core one more young, talented player with potential to still be teased out.

Last season, particularly at the beginning of the campaign, was a pleasant stunner that caught most analysts off guard—no one anticipated Markkanen having a breakout on that scale. Without Mitchell, the thinking went, the club would lack an alpha-dog scorer, and potentially lack the iso-heavy late-game offense to go toe-to-toe with contenders.

But Markkanen was fantastic not only from distance (39.1%), but also at putting the ball on the deck and forcing defenders to take away his driving lanes and counters. And the other players—from veteran Jordan Clarkson’s development as a primary playmaker to Talen Horton-Tucker’s occasional scoring outbursts—generally did their part to keep Utah in games. (The Jazz had a total of 52 games, the third most in the NBA, that were within five points or fewer in the final five minutes of play.)

Still, it would be a bit surprising to watch Utah outperform its expectations again this season, particularly with so many teams in the West—the Suns, Lakers, Warriors and the up-and-coming Thunder among them—seemingly on track to improve.

While the Jazz defense has upside potential, with Kessler getting more playing time in his second year, it’s hard to imagine the club being any better than average on that end of the floor. (They ranked eighth worst last season, surrendering 116 points per 100 possessions, and ranked near the bottom of the league in points allowed in the paint and the number of points they allowed off turnovers.) With center Kelly Olynyk likely set to play less to make room for Kessler, and Collins likely set to join the starting five, Utah will be a bit short on frontcourt playmaking. Markkanen, Collins and Kessler combined to average just four assists per game last season. (This quietly highlights the biggest remaining area for growth from the 26-year-old Markkanen after his seismic leap last season.)

Still, it’s hard to argue against the addition of Collins, even with how large his contract is. The Jazz picked him up at his nadir, following a season in which he shot a career-worst 29.2% from three on 240 attempts. (Only four players shot worse than that last season on 200 tries or more.) That being said, the ring finger on Collins’s shooting hand had ballooned and was in bad shape—so much that the Hawks deleted an image of it from their social media. If the finger is less of an issue, it’s reasonable to think Collins can be closer to the 35% career shooter he’s been from outside, if not better. And that would give Utah considerable value on his deal.

However it plays out, though, the rebuilding Jazz should be intriguing. They likely won’t catch opponents by surprise this time around. But after a solid showing from core players last season, seeing how the club handles the next step in its on-court progression will be vital.