Why Fans Should Be Wary Of Making Lionel Messi Futures Bets

Lionel Messi has been more than advertised since his first Inter Miami match on July 21, and public action has driven the Argentinian and the MLS side up futures boards.

Messi scored five goals in his first three games with Inter Miami, and his odds to win be MLS’ leading scorer leaped to 16-1 at FanDuel. Inter Miami, which is the worst team in the Eastern Conference, is 12-1 to win MLS Cup this season.

The 36-year-old still is one of the greatest players in the world, and he has elevated the worst team in MLS to a must-watch club. He has attracted insane ticket prices, Inter Miami did well in the summer transfer window to elevate Tata Martino’s side. But there’s reason to be cautious about making larger wagers for this season.

Messi’s performances came in the Leagues Cup, an in-season tournament that pits MLS teams against Liga MX teams. Inter Miami beat Orlando City on Wednesday to advance to the round of 16.

Inter Miami returns to MLS action on Aug. 12, and it has 12 games remaining on its schedule. As things stand in the middle of Leagues Cup action, Miami is 12 points behind D.C. United for the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. That means it needs to be near-perfect in the final stretch of the season.

That might be possible, but another question that will come up is if Messi will play on artificial turf. Inter Miami plays at Atlanta United and Charlotte in its 12-game schedule, and those teams play on turf. Would those teams make an exception for Messi considering the financial numbers he brings? Would NFL players take exception to their stadiums making a change to grass for soccer but not for their games?

Then there’s the Golden Boot race. Hany Mukhtar is in the lead with 13 goals. Nashville did a reasonable job in the transfer window to help out its forward, so Messi would have to outscore him to win the Golden Boot. His pace after three games would suggest that’s a realistic possibility, but that’s unknown until Inter Miami plays better MLS sides.

That’s what those who bet Inter Miami to win MLS Cup will have to contend with if it does make the postseason. How Cincinnati and Philadelphia handle Messi will be a big test for Inter Miami, and even if it makes it to the final, there will be clubs like Los Angeles FC to handle.

If you want to throw in a bet for fun, don’t let someone on the internet tell you otherwise, but if you want your bet to actually win, there’s reason for caution to throw out money based on early hype. Perhaps it’s best to wait for next season, though sportsbooks might get ahead and offer out short odds on Messi futures.