Just past season’s two-thirds mark, here’s how the Phillies’ schedule stacks up among Wild Card contenders
As the trade deadline fades into the rearview mirror and with August, the penultimate month of the regular season, under way, the Philadelphia Phillies are in a good spot. That might not necessarily be true a week from now, but as things stand, they’re in a good spot.
Thursday’s win over the Miami Marlins marked the 109th game in the Phillies’ 2023 schedule, putting them just over two-thirds of the way through the regular season. At 59-50, they head into the final stretch 1 1/2 games up on a playoff spot.
The National League Wild Card field can reasonably be described as seven teams fighting for three spots. Those seven would be the Phillies, San Francisco Giants and NL Central runner-up (right now, Cincinnati) — the teams currently in the three Wild Card spots — as well as the Marlins, Arizona Diamondbacks, Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres, on the outside looking in. Of course, the Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers could be overtaken in their respective divisions, thus moving into the Wild Card race, but the numbers remain the same: It’s seven teams, three spots.
From a strength-of-schedule standpoint, the Phillies have an advantage on most. Their remaining opponents’ .493 collective winning percentage, as found on Tankathon, gives them the fifth-easiest schedule in the National League.
But as far as the Wild Card picture is concerned, their schedule stacks up even better than that. One of the four NL teams with a weaker schedule is the Atlanta Braves, who have all but clinched the East. The Brewers, Reds and Cubs are the other three, and one of those teams will win the Central.
That means that of the six teams with whom the Phillies will be competing for a Wild Card spot, just two have an easier schedule from here on out.
The Phillies also find another advantage in their remaining number of home games. Citizens Bank Park is where the Phillies have played their best this year — they’re eight games over .500 at home as opposed to one over on the road — and they’ll have quite a few opportunities to improve on that figure down the stretch.
No MLB team will play more home games the rest of the regular season than the Phillies. They’ll suit up in front of the Citizens Bank Park home crowd another 33 times — six more home games than any other team in the Wild Card race will play.
That’s another clear advantage for the Phillies, who would finish with 88 wins if they keep up their current .583 clip at home and their .508 mark on the road. That should be enough for a playoff berth: The Marlins, the current first team out, would have to go 30-22 against the NL’s fourth-toughest remaining schedule to reach 88 wins.
A disclaimer: It’s hard to blame anyone for casting aside all these numbers because in reality, the greatest obstacle in the way of a Phillies playoff berth isn’t any of those six teams, or the two division leaders who could stumble into the Wild Card picture. It’s the Phillies. If they limit the number of games like the one they lost on Wednesday — where they shot themselves in the foot numerous times en route to a loss in Miami — they’ll be fine, no matter the schedule.
But that only happens in a perfect world, and this world isn’t perfect. So let the numbers provide a little extra optimism.
They say a baseball season is a marathon, not a sprint. That’s surely true over 162 games. Over 53? It’s most definitely a sprint.
However slight, the Phillies will begin that sprint with a head start — and with all the advantages to further separate.
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