Emmy Experts Typing: Can anyone take down Jennifer Coolidge in Best Drama Supporting Actress?

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we tackle the drama categories and consider upset possibilities in supporting actress.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! It’s Friday and Emmy voting is in view — even if the ceremony is twisting in the wind without a date or even year. But I woke up this morning not concerned about “television’s biggest night” but the Best Drama Supporting Actress race. To me, with my “Succession” bias turned way up, this feels like the most competitive category of the drama acting races. We both think “Succession” should win the other three acting awards — though I’m sure some pundits still think Kieran Culkin is vulnerable to an in-show vote-split with Jeremy Strong. But “Succession” doesn’t necessarily have an easy winner in supporting actress, of course, with J. Smith-Cameron the show’s lone nominee there off a season that felt like it needed one or two more moments for Gerri. (JSC, of course x 2, was exemplary on the show in the parts of her performance that ended up onscreen.) Most people have Jennifer Coolidge winning here, and duh: She won last year (albeit in limited) and “The White Lotus” remains an Emmys favorite as well. It’s possible — even likely — that Coolidge is the show’s only winner during the Primetime Emmys broadcast. It feels awfully easy to imagine voters just checking her off and moving on. But *Meryl voice* I have such doubts — to the point where I’m almost ready to predict a win for Rhea Seehorn with pretzel logic that includes but is not limited to Meghann Fahy being a legitimate favorite for “The White Lotus” fans, Smith-Cameron not having enough material (even though this is a supporting category, her Season 4 arc still feels a little light even if it was perfect for the story) and the Coolidge fever having peaked. But predicting Seehorn feels almost reckless since “Better Call Saul” has never won a single Emmy and the voters didn’t even realize Seehorn should be a nominee until last year. Joyce, has strike brain and Emmy uncertainty left me to overthink this more than usual, or is it possible drama supporting actress turns out to be the biggest shocker on Emmys night?

joyceeng61: I don’t think this race is as competitive as you think it is, even if Coolidge loses. Competitive to me is, like, Best Comedy Supporting Actor or Best TV Movie this year. The most likely scenario is, obviously, a Coolidge victory. She’s still having a moment and beat two reigning multi-time Emmy winners at SAG. We’ll never know, but I think she would win by a closer margin than she did last year, but it would still be a pretty big gap between first and second. The next likely scenario is a JSC triumph as part of a “Succession” sweep. I would predict her to win if she were competing in the field that Tobias Menzies had in 2021 — there was no juggernaut for him to take down and he was in the strongest show and series winner. Like I said the other day, I feel like people would be more disposed to predicting Smith-Cameron if she had a tad more screen time, even though Gerri had an arc this season, complete with a pending job offer from Tom at the end. Smith-Cameron, as the kids say, ate in her handful of scenes, and there’s something to be said for maximizing impact with minimal screen time. The third scenario, I think, would be a Seehorn or Elizabeth Debicki win, though I don’t really see either happening. Seehorn would prevail under the tape system with “Waterworks,” but I’ve long given up on predicting a “Better Call Saul” triumph since voters insist on keeping us in the bad place. Debicki would be a stronger dark horse if “The Crown” weren’t such a shrug this season. She did swing a SAG nom over Imelda Staunton (which foreshadowed Staunton’s Emmy snub). I feel like the least likely scenario is a non-JCool “White Lotus” lady winning. I think they all have their pockets of support, unlike last year’s crop (no offense to them), and someone like your beloved Fahy is more likely to pull enough votes from Coolidge for a non-“White Lotus” nominee to strike gold. Also, imagine if Sarah Snook had remained in supporting. Now that would’ve been a competitive race. Lead is the absolute correct call for her for Season 4 and she feels like a safe pick at the moment. She’s also campaigning all the way from Australia (pre-strike), dispelling cold takes that Shiv betrayed Kendall so she could “win” vicariously through Tom and has Jesse Armstrong saying things like he hopes he’s done right by her talents (so British!). Will the Emmys finally be on Team Shiv?

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Christopher Rosen: Stranger things have happened certainly, but I would frankly be stunned if Snook didn’t win. She has the material, she’s got the narrative (not that it matters), and she’s seemingly well-liked by her industry peers. The case could be made that Shiv was the most complex character on “Succession” and every bit her mercurial father. No disrespect to Bella Ramsey, who feels like the clear alternate to Snook, but it’s hard for them or any of the other nominees to compete with Shiv in terms of character. Snook had the most to do and did it all better than ever. If she were in supporting, I think she’d win easily too. While we’re on the leads, though, shall we type about Best Drama Actor? Tapes don’t matter, but I was surprised with Pedro Pascal’s pick of “Kin” when he could’ve chosen the pilot or finale — two incredibly emotional episodes for Joel. Our “Succession” pals, meanwhile, stuck the landings. Strong picked the finale; Brian Cox went with “Rehearsal” because while the Roy kids are not serious people, he certainly is; and Culkin picked “Church and State,” an obvious choice because of the emotion but also one of probably four episodes that would be equally impressive in terms of his performance. (I’m partial to “America Decides” because I like it when our boy gets to win.) I’ve kind of thought this would be a little competitive, but our odds say otherwise: Culkin in a walk. Are you surprised almost everyone is on the right wavelength here?

joyceeng61: Hey now, “Kin” birthed a meme. Put some respect on its name. Culkin went with the “Roman being a dick (but not dick pics)” submission last year with “Too Much Birthday,” so I think his top two considerations were “Church and State” and “Kill List” as he gets to show off more of his range and more shade to Roman. There’s a contingent that subscribes to the “Succession” vote-split, though it is funny to me that the consensus beneficiary of that — Pascal — is in fourth in the odds, behind Strong and Bob Odenkirk as well. I think if it were up to the people, Culkin would win, just based on the sheer response and excitement over his performance this season. There are still some unknowns at the Emmys — he’s never competed in lead and thus has never faced off against Strong (or Cox) there. But like we’ve talked about, when voters watch and love your show (and we know that’s true of “Succession”), they tend to recognize the “right” people and it’s hard to find someone who wasn’t impressed by Culkin in Season 4. I think the more competitive “Succession”-“The Last of Us” acting showdown is in guest actor. Nick Offerman remains in front and is for sure the People’s Champion, but there’s a path for James Cromwell to bulldoze his way to the podium like Ewan did.

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Christopher Rosen: We both have Uncle Ewan winning for his powerhouse monologue, but I’m wavering because of the emotional factor. People are very passionate about Offerman’s episode of “The Last of Us” and it definitely made them cry. That probably would matter in a normal race but the thing about guest actor is you could make the argument that every “Last of Us” performance here made someone cry — including Offerman’s scene partner, Murray Bartlett. That’s why I haven’t gone off Cromwell and probably won’t: This feels like a category where an actual vote-split could happen, leaving the “Succession” elder statesman to win (no disrespect to Stewey, team Ken, baby). I guess as we wrap up here, I’ll leave you with the last word on drama guest actress, which again comes down to “Succession” vs. “The Last of Us.”

joyceeng61: Wow, why are you spreading fake news?! I have Offerman in first. As I said last week, I think this is the first time Cromwell deserves to win for “Succession” and is super competitive to win as well. But there’s clearly a lotta love for “The Last of Us” and I wonder if this will kind of be like the comedy guest actress race last year when Laurie Metcalf beat three other “Hacks” women. They are totally different races with different dynamics — Metcalf was never a frontrunner like Offerman is — but I mean more of over-thinking the vote-split possibility. Of course, “Succession” couldn’t overcome a four-way split in this category last year; however, none of them really had the same kind of passion that Offerman has. “Succession” has left some guest wins on the table over the years, but perhaps it will be different now with the last season and all. Drama guest actress is competitive as well, but while I can see myself switching to Cromwell eventually, I will stick with Harriet Walter here. Once you go face eggs, you can’t go back.

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