2023 Emmy Predictions: Best Pre-Recorded Variety Special

Although the Emmy Award for Best Pre-Recorded Variety Special has not gone to a retrospective program of any kind since the category was established in 2018, several such winners were crowned over the preceding decades when all variety specials competed for the same prize. This year’s pre-recorded program lineup happens to include two televised celebrations of industry legends, one of which – “Carol Burnett: 90 Years of Laughter + Love” – is heavily favored to become the first special of its kind to achieve this exact honor.

The other commemorative special that could block the Burnett one’s path to victory is “Norman Lear: 100 Years of Music & Laughter.” Based on the untested nature of their format, both will have to watch out for every one of their fellow nominees, which include “Lizzo: Live in Concert” and Netflix stand-up specials starring John Mulaney, Trevor Noah, and Wanda Sykes.

In order to determine the true likelihood of Burnett’s career celebration prevailing here, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to visit our predictions center to make your own picks in this and 29 other Creative Arts Emmy categories.

“Carol Burnett: 90 Years of Laughter + Love” (NBC)
This nomination comes five years after “The Carol Burnett Show: 50th Anniversary Special” competed for the inaugural pre-recorded program award. Burnett, who has personally won six Emmys in three different categories, appeared in this special (which aired on her 90th birthday) as its guest of honor as many of her friends and former costars paid direct tribute to her. Included on the extensive roster were Bob Odernkirk, Jane Lynch, Vicki Lawrence, Julie Andrews, Bob Mackie, and even Joe Biden.

“John Mulaney: Baby J” (Netflix)
Mulaney’s fifth stand-up comedy special attracted a great deal of attention because it being his first in five years meant that his material had significantly evolved, especially following his heavily publicized rehab stint and divorce. The 40-year-old funnyman was previously recognized in this category for the musical special “John Mulaney & the Sack Lunch Bunch” (2020) and has been honored twice outside of it for his work on “Saturday Night Live” (Best Music and Lyrics, 2011) and “Kid Gorgeous at Radio City” (Best Variety Special Writing, 2018).

“Lizzo: Live in Concert” (Max)
This concert program was filmed over two days in November 2022 and documented the end of the first North American leg of Lizzo’s “The Special Tour,” which fully wrapped in July 2023. As her fourth headlining tour, it primarily incorporated songs from her fourth studio album, “Special,” including the Grammy-winning hit single “About Damn Time.” Special guest performers who made appearances during her two Inglewood, California shows were Missy Elliott, Cardi B, and a group of former “RuPaul’s Drag Race” contestants.

“Norman Lear: 100 Years of Music & Laughter” (ABC)
This special, which premiered about two months after Lear celebrated his 100th birthday, provided dozens of artists with an opportunity to give thanks to the prolific creator for his immeasurable influence on the television medium. While most of the footage was taken from a heavily-attended banquet, sizable portions of the program involved Lear and Jimmy Kimmel (who have shared in two live special Emmy wins for “Live in Front of a Studio Audience”) intimately discussing his career along with Jennifer Aniston, Amy Poehler, and Octavia Spencer.

“Trevor Noah: I Wish You Would” (Netflix)
Noah has starred in a whopping 11 stand-up specials since 2009, and, like Mulaney, just ended his extended break from them that began in 2018. This one originally streamed last November, about eight weeks after Noah announced he would be stepping down as the host of Comedy Central’s “The Daily Show” after seven years. For the talk series, he has also picked up 2023 producing and writing nominations.

“Wanda Sykes: I’m an Entertainer” (Netflix)
This is the fourth Sykes special to earn recognition here, following “Sick and Tired” (2007), “I’ma Be Me” (2010), and “Not Normal” (2019). The comedian was also nominated here in 2020 for producing Tiffany Haddish’s “Black Mitzvah” and has a 1999 writing win to her name for “The Chris Rock Show.” In addition to also being up for this year’s Best Variety Special Writing award, she is concurrently competing for the Best Character Voice-Over Performance prize as a “Crank Yankers” cast member.

So, what will win the 2023 Emmy for Best Pre-Recorded Variety Special? Regarding Lizzo, one mustn’t forget the shocking Best Competition Program victory she and her fellow “Watch Out for the Big Grrrls” producers pulled off over “Drag Race” in 2022 nor discount its potential impact on this contest. What’s more, hers is the only concert special currently in the running for this award, which just went to “Adele: One Night Only” last year.

Since the three stand-up specials will probably cancel themselves out and Mulaney and Sykes can more reasonably count on being honored for their writing, the only other program that the Burnett team should really be concerned about is the Lear retrospective. Given its subject’s success in the live special category, it could appeal to more than enough voters, but they may also feel he’s been given his due. Five years after passing up the opportunity to decorate her iconic show’s 50th anniversary special, many voters will surely jump at the chance to honor this charming, all-encompassing celebration of Burnett’s legendary career.

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