Phillies series preview: Can they make another post-season run?
The Phillies have been big spenders, but it hasn’t always worked out
The Phillies have been big spenders lately and that resulted in a surprising post-season run last year as a Wild Card team that earned them their eighth National League pennant in club history. This year they find themselves far back of first place, but still positioned for a Wild Card spot and another potential run in October.
The Phillies looked like they may not get a chance to defend their pennant by starting 25-32 to begin the year. But they’ve won 34 of 52 games since then and they have won their last three series.
Philadelphia’s overall runs scored and runs allowed don’t look that different than the disappointing Mets. But the Phillies have gone 22-14 in one-run games while the Mets are 17-17, and that explains why the Phillies were buyers and the Mets were sellers at the deadline.
Kansas City Royals (35-75) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (59-50) at Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA
Royals: 3.85 runs scored/game (29th in MLB), 5.27 runs allowed/game (28th)
Phillies: 4.49 runs scored/game (15th in MLB), 4.37 runs allowed/game (15th)
The Phillies are paying over $94 million to Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper, Trea Turner, and Nick Castellanos this season, and they have combined for 2.1 fWAR. Schwarber is sixth in baseball in home runs, but also has the lowest batting average of any qualified hitter. Trea Turner has the tenth-worst wRC+ among qualified hitters. Bryce Harper’s UCL injury from a year ago has sapped his power, and he has a lower ISO this year than Michael Massey. Schwarber and Castellanos are among the six worst defensive outfielders by DRS this year, with Schwarber at an astounding -17 DRS.
The Phillies have the sixth-highest strikeout rate among hitters and the ninth-lowest walk rate. Despite playing in the eighth-best home run ballpark, they have hit the tenth-fewest home runs. They are not plodders - they are eighth in baseball in steals and ninth in Baserunning Runs.
Aaron Nola’s ERA may not be that impressive, but he has been the 24th-most valuable pitcher in baseball in WAR, according to Fangraphs. He has been a workhorse with only five pitchers in baseball having tossed more innings. Nola throws strikes and has one of the better chase rates in the game.
Cristopher Sanchez has been a tough luck pitcher who has yet to give up more than three runs in any of his nine starts, but has yet to win a game. He tossed five no-hit innings against the Pirates his last time out, but the Phillies ultimately lost 6-4. Sanchez has a minuscule 4 percent walk rate and a high 56.5 percent groundball rate. He relies on a 91 mph sinker with a change up and slider.
Taijuan Walker had a rough start with Philadelphia after signing a four-year, $72 million deal last winter. But he has begun to come on lately, with a 2.45 ERA over his last ten starts, winning eight games over that time. Walker throws a solid split-fingered fastball, but tends to give up hard contact on his four-seamer. He also mixes in a cutter and sinker, and generates a high groundball rate as well at 45.9 percent.
The Phillies bullpen has a 3.77 ERA, tenth-best in baseball. Craig Kimbrel has 412 career saves and is seventh in the National League in the category this year, but has his first two blown saves of the season in the last two weeks. Former Royals Matt Strahm and Yunior Marte have found a home in Philadelphia. Strahm has been effective, but he does have the second-highest home run rate among relievers.
The Royals are the hottest team in baseball, having won six straight, but this will be the best team record-wise they have played since they took on the Rays in mid-July. The Royals have managed to have good spurts of play against some good teams - they went 3-4 against the Rays. Perhaps this invigorated group of youngsters can show these overpaid Phillies a thing or two this weekend.