Nearly 100,000 pupils ‘to miss top A-level grades’ in drop to pre-Covid marks

Almost 100,000 fewer A and A* grades could be awarded to A-level students this year as grades return toward pre-pandemic levels, a top schooling expert has said.

This summer marks the end of a two-year government plan to bring results ‘back to normal’ by telling exam boards to set tests as they would have in 2019.

The Covid pandemic led to a spike in top grades in 2020 and 2021, when papers were marked by teachers instead of exam boards.

Last year’s exams were designed so grades would fall around half-way between 2021, when 45% of all A-levels were graded A or A*, and 2019 levels, when the proportion was 25.5%.

Alan Smithers, professor of education at Buckingham University, said a return to 2019 levels this year would see 59,000 fewer A* grades and 35,500 fewer A grades awarded.

His analysis suggests around 30,000 pupils in England, Wales and Northern Ireland who would have got A* grades last year won’t this year, while 20,000 will miss out on A grades.

However, while he expects the number of top grades to fall, Prof Smithers predicted they won’t fall quite as far as the government asked.

‘Teacher assessment has given subjective subjects a taste for awarding top grades, which they will be reluctant to relinquish,’ he explained.

‘There are many who would welcome slower progress including lots of parents who are worried that their sons and daughters will miss out on university places that would have been open to them last year or the year before.

‘During the teacher assessment years many students and their parents will have developed unreasonable expectations.

‘Whatever the extent to which top grades are brought down this year, the drop will lead to a lot of disappointment and probably a huge increase in the number of appeals.’

Widespread disruption to the last school year caused by teacher strikes could also have made exam boards more lenient, he added.

Furthermore, in Wales and Northern Ireland pupils were given some idea of the questions they would be asked.

This practice was one of the ways grades were boosted across England, Wales and Northern Ireland in 2021.

A Department for Education spokesperson said: ‘This year GCSE and A-level grading is largely returning to normal, in line with plans set out by Ofqual almost two years ago, to make sure qualifications maintain their value and students get the opportunities they deserve.

‘This means national results are expected to be similar to those in pre-pandemic years, and a student should be just as likely to achieve a particular grade this year as they would have been before the pandemic.

‘The number of top grades also has no bearing on the number of university places available.”

A spokeswoman for Ofqual, which regulates exams, said: ‘This year we expect exam grades to go back to similar levels to 2019, which was the last year before the pandemic.

‘This is part of a planned two-year programme of returning exams to normal.

‘Because of the disruption students have faced there are still grade protections in place which mean a student will be just as likely to achieve a particular grade this year as they would have been before the pandemic.’

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