Gold Derby editors predict the major Emmy comedy winners as final-round voting looms [WATCH]

Whenever Gold Derby senior editors Denton Davidson, Marcus James Dixon, Daniel Montgomery and news and features editor Ray Richmond get together over Zoom these days, the discussion quickly turns to a debate over the various major Emmy races. The intensity in their conversation reached a fever pitch last week with the approach of final-round Emmy voting taking place August 17 to 28. Will their expert chat help influence voters? Hope springs eternal. Watch the exclusive video of their entire four-way slugfest (moderated by Dixon) above. The analysis will be presented in three posted installments with the comedy categories today.

COMEDY SERIES

(Nominees: “Abbott Elementary,” “Barry,” “The Bear,” “Jury Duty,” “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” “Only Murders in the Building,” “Ted Lasso,” “Wednesday”)

Emmy season kicked off with reigning two-time champ “Ted Lasso” breaking out to a big lead in the Gold Derby combined odds, but the gap has narrowed with the passing weeks as “The Bear” has made up ground. While shows like “The Bear” that are heavily dramatic have historically been at a disadvantage in comedy series. Richmond predicts that changes this year. “I think people are going to be voting for ‘The Bear’ no matter what category it’s in, and I think its drama gives it an advantage this time because it’s more powerful,” Richmond says.

“I don’t know if you’re right or wrong,” Dixon offers, “but I do think it’s only those two. I’m not considering ‘Abbott’ or ‘Maisel’ or ‘Only Murders’ or “Jury Duty’ or ‘Barry’ or “Wednesday’.”

“I agree that it’s between ‘Ted Lasso’ and ‘The Bear’,” adds Montgomery. “I’d kept hearing ‘Abbott’ was going to expand and be huge and would get 15 or 20 nominations. Instead, it got 8 and missed (a nomination in) writing. So I was like, ‘OK ‘Abbott,’ I’m doe with you.’ I’d expected enthusiasm for ‘Ted Lasso’ to wane (this year) and what happened? It got more nominations than it’s ever gotten before, 21, and no other comedy even comes close. So I really feel like it’s the show to beat.”

“I underestimated ‘Ted Lasso’ last year,” Davidson admits, “and I just don’t want to make that mistake again. What’s interesting in our odds is that ‘Ted Lasso’ is leading comedy series but it’s winning nothing else (in the acting, writing and directing races). That’s not going to happen, so someone’s wrong here.”

COMEDY ACTOR

(Nominees: Bill Hader for “Barry,” Jason Segel for “Shrinking,” Martin Short for “Only Murders in the Building,” Jason Sudeikis for “Ted Lasso,” Jeremy Allen White for “The Bear”)

White has jumped out to a fairly substantial lead in the category in the combined odds at Gold Derby, but Dixon has two-time reigning category champ Sudeikis winning after backing another two-time winner Hader last year. “Yes, I went with Bill Hader last year, stupidly,” he acknowledges. “Of course they’re going to go with Jason. He’s the funny one. This time, it’s him vs. Hader and someone else who’s not funny, Jeremy Allen White. I think the two non-funny guys will answer each other out.”

“You’re wrong!” Montgomery declares to Dixon. He points out that Hader already won twice for a largely dramatic performance and “Jeremy Allen White is brand new. (His is) the hot new show. I think Jeremy wins (whether “The Bear” wins for comedy series or not). Richmond agrees with that, pointing out that “there’s just been so much heat around (White’s) performance.”

Davidson has White down to win here as well, noting that, “He won the SAG Award. He’s been the hottest thing among the nominees in the past year, though I’m not as confident in his winning as Daniel is. Jason (Sudeikis) could definitely win. This is his farewell, and he submitted an episode called ‘So Long, Farewell.’ So there could be a lot of emotion tied to that.”

COMEDY ACTRESS

(Nominees: Christina Applegate for “Dead to Me,” Rachel Brosnahan for “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” Quinta Brunson for “Abbott Elementary,” Natasha Lyonne for “Poker Face,” Jenna Ortega for “Wednesday”)

Brunson – last year’s winner for comedy writing – has been the comfortable frontrunner here since Emmy season began, and certainly since the nominations were revealed on July 12, the top choice of more Gold Derby voters than her four competitors combined. But that hasn’t influenced Richmond, for whom Brunson is no better than fourth in the category.

“Hold on,” Dixon replied, “I have to laugh out loud. That’s ridiculous.”

Richmond explained his reasoning, that the enthusiasm for “Abbott Elementary” has cooled significantly since it generated only eight total nominations, while the sentiment for Applegate, fighting MS and facing an uncertain acting future, figures to be powerful among voters. “I think that’s really going to come into play here,” he adds.

While Davidson is picking Brunson, he’s “not confident at all” about. “I just think everyone here is super lucky that Jean Smart isn’t eligible this year (for “Hacks”) because none of (this year’s nominees) would have beaten her. My number two is Jenna Ortega on the hot new show, ‘Wednesday’.” Montgomery is sticking with Brunson, with Brosnahan second because “it’s rare for an actor like Brosnahan to win and then lose a bunch and then come back to win again.”

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR

(Nominees: Anthony Carrigan for “Barry,” Phil Dunster for “Ted Lasso,” Brett Goldstein for “Ted Lasso,” James Marsden for “Jury Duty,” Ebon Moss-Bachrach for “The Bear,” Tyler James Williams for “Abbott Elementary,” Henry Winkler for “Barry”)

Williams has paced the lost since before the nominations were even announced, with Moss-Bachrach coming on in the Gold Derby combined odds since the least of “The Bear’s” acclaimed second season in June. Two-time winner Goldstein is now no better than third choice. But there is little agreement among the editors in a category that’s ultra-competitive. Dixon was unabashed in his choice of Carrigan. “I have a feeling I’m kind of on my own,” he feared, “but he’s hugely impactful to me and I think he’s going to be the next Julia Garner.”

Montgomery doesn’t agree but is going in an equally unlikely direction, admitting that he recently switched his allegiance to Marsden. “It’s a different performance than anyone else in this category is giving,” he maintains. “It’s a different degree of difficulty because he’s playing a version of himself and he has to pull the wool over the eyes of the person who is sort of at the center of this trial hoax. If it’s not him, it’s Goldstein.”

“I have Brett Goldstein (winning) and I don’t know if I’m going to keep him there,” says Davidson. “I think if you’re picking ‘Ted Lasso’ to win comedy series, it’s not gong to win that without some other big award and he’s already won twice in a row, so they obviously like him.” Richmond said he was going with Williams but by late that afternoon had switched to Marsden. “This is a coinflip category, and you could make a case for almost any of them to win,” he believes.

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS

(Nominees: Alex Borstein for “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel,” Ayo Edebiri for “The Bear,” Janelle James for “Abbott Elementary,” Sheryl Lee Ralph for “Abbott Elementary,” Juno Temple for “Ted Lasso,” Hannah Waddingham for “Ted Lasso,” Jessica Williams for “Shrinking”)

Edibiri moved past 2022 winner Ralph in the Gold Derby combined odds shortly after the nominations were announced, and Davidson is in line with that. “I actually had Hannah for quite a while and just keep toggling back and forth,” he stresses. “I think certain shows have to win something, but it’s like the lottery if you’re not picking the right numbers. In picking Oyo, I think a lot of it does into her work on Season 2. She’s sort of the breatout star and she’s having a great year.”

Dixon has Waddingham in first place but admits, “If I were a voter, Jessica Williams, you would be my pick. I think you are the funniest on “Shrinking” and your nomination was so well-deserved.” Montgomery and Richmond are both also picking Edebiri, though Montgomery admits, “Oddly, I’m less confident now just because ‘Ted Lasso’ did so well in the nominations. So I’ve got Hannah a very close second and then Sheryl Lee Ralph in third.”

While Richmond is picking Edibiri, he has a lot of respect for James, “who I think is overdue to be recognized. I’m going with Ayo because ‘The Bear’ is so bold and different, and I think it makes the TV academy look good to honor a show like that.”

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