Premier League relegation odds and tips: Who will drop down to the Championship this season?

THE Premier League is up and running this week, and though some will have lofty aspirations of winning the title – a handful of clubs will simply be focused on maintaining their top-flight status.

It can be a difficult market to navigate, often dominated by the three sides promoted from the Championship. It’s a similar story this season, but punters should be wary given Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth and Fulham all survived their first season back at the expense of Southampton, Leeds and Leicester.

Can Luton Town and Sheffield United defy the odds? Will anyone succumb to second-season syndrome? Could there be a shock candidate in the drop zone?

Let’s take a look at the latest betting odds on the Premier League’s relegation scrap. Odds supplied by bet365.

Who are the favourites to be relegated from the Premier League?

• Luton – 1/3
• Sheffield United – 8/13
• Bournemouth – 11/5
• Nottingham Forest – 5/2
• Burnley – 11/4

SunSport have taken a closer look at the leading candidates for relegation, and consider who will have enough to preserve their top-flight status.

Luton – 1/3 | Manager: Rob Edwards

It’s no secret that the odds are stacked against Luton Town. The Hatters achieved promotion via a penalty shootout victory over Coventry in the play-off finals in May having finished a distant third in the Championship.

Rob Edwards’ side have a squad value of £52million, which is the lowest of any team in the division by some distance. They’ve spent just £17m on a handful of new recruits over the summer, the fourth lowest of all clubs. It also looks as though their opening two games of the season will be away given the improvement works at Kenilworth Road.

Sheffield United – 8/13 | Manager: Paul Heckingbottom

It’s been a tumultuous summer for Sheffield United. The Blades lost last season’s top scorer Iliman Ndiaye two weeks before their opening clash, while influential loanees Tommy Doyle and James McAtee are no longer at Bramall Lane.

Three players have walked through the door in Anis Slimane, Benie Traore and Auston Trusty but none have played Premier League football, while boss Paul Heckingbottom has lost seven of his ten top-flight matches as a manager.

Bournemouth – 11/5 | Manager: Andoni Iraola

Was it a gamble worth taking? We’ll soon find out. Bournemouth’s decision to replace Gary O’Neil with Andoni Iraola raised a few eyebrows, especially considering O’Neil won 10 of his 34 Premier League games and guided the Cherries to a 15th-placed finish.

But Iraola arrives with an exciting reputation and several new signings, including Hamed Traore, Milos Kerkez, Romain Faivre and Justin Kluivert for a combined £60million.

Nottingham Forest – 5/2 | Manager: Steve Cooper

Nottingham Forest survived relegation by four points last season, and nearly all of their points were accrued at the City Ground. Steve Cooper must address his team’s miserable away form if they are to stay afloat for another season having taken just eight points in 19 matches on the road last year.

It’s somewhat of a miracle that Forest survived after last summer’s chaotic recruitment process, but a more focused transfer window could see them improve further – providing Cooper remains in charge.

Burnley – 11/4 | Manager: Vincent Kompany

Burnley won the Championship title last season, and they won it in style with former Manchester City captain Vincent Kompany at the helm. He’s certainly attracted the attentions of clubs across Europe, and being poached midway through the campaign could spell disaster for the Clarets.

Burnley have invested heavily in youth over the summer with nobody over the age of 24 arriving at Turf Moor. They have the second-youngster average squad in the division and experience counts for plenty at this level.

How are Premier League relegation odds worked out?

Odds are calculated by the bookmaker. They will estimate the probability of an event taking place and based on their prediction, will display odds.

The more likely an event is to take place, the shorter the price. Luton Town are newcomers to the division with fairly inexperienced squad and vastly lower resources than the majority of their competitors. The bookies have therefore calculated their odds at 1/3 to be relegated.

A team’s squad, resources and manager are all taken into account when calculating relegation odds, in addition to form, fixtures and even potential points deductions.

Who are the bookies favourite for relegation from the Premier League?

Luton Town are by far and away the bookies’ favourites for relegation in the 2023-24 Premier League campaign at 1/3. Sheffield United are second in the betting market at 8/13, and the only other club at odds-on.

The bookmakers aren’t so confident of the remaining relegation contenders, with Bournemouth the next most likely at 11/5. Nottingham Forest are in behind at 5/2, ahead of Vincent Kompany’s Burnley at 11/4.

Which Premier League clubs have never been relegated?

Since the formation of the Premier League in 1992, only six clubs have remained ever-presents in the division. They are: Manchester United, Arsenal, Tottenham, Liverpool, Everton and Chelsea.

Brighton are included, but only by virtue of the fact that they have not been relegated since being promoted to the Premier League in the 2017-18 season. The Seagulls were not part of the first Premier League season.

Has a big club ever been relegated?

A thorny issue for a variety of reasons, not least what defines a ‘big club’.

A good case could be made for Aston Villa, who were a stalwart of the Premier League since its formation. Villa are one of the oldest and most successful clubs in England, having won the Football League First Division seven times, the FA Cup seven times, the League Cup five times, and the European Cup.

Villa were relegated in the 2015-16 season. Leeds are another huge club to have been relegated with three league titles under their belt, while Blackburn Rovers are the only Premier League title winners to have dropped a division.

Newcastle haven’t won a major trophy since lifting the FA Cup in 1955, but do boast a huge fanbase and are woven into the fabric of the Premier League. The Toon have spent just two years outside of top flight and come closer than most to be crowned top-flight champions.

West Ham may not be the most successful of teams when it comes to trophies (excluding their Europa Conference League success) but they are another who cast a huge shadow over Premier League football and suffered an unexpected relegation.

Bet on a team to be relegated

bet365 are a top bookmaker to bet on the relegation market – you can join them here.

*Odds are subject to change, always check before signing up and betting at any operators mentioned. Over 18s only.

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