2023 Emmy Predictions: Best Documentary Series

Although the last decade’s worth of Best Documentary Series Emmy winners were nature or biography programs, the two strongest contenders for the 2023 prize are broad-scope American history shows. Leading the pack is “The 1619 Project,” which offers an in-depth look at the everlasting impact of Black slavery, followed relatively closely by “The U.S. and the Holocaust,” which examines America’s response to the most damaging genocide that has ever occurred outside of the two westernmost continents.

Unlike most Primetime Emmys, Best Documentary Series is a non-competitive area award that is bestowed upon any nominee that earns the approval of 90% of the members of the TV academy’s documentary peer group. This means that the five programs in the 2023 lineup are not vying for a single trophy and could all potentially prevail. However, the amount of yearly winners has never exceeded two, and just one show has been honored in over 80% of all cases, presumably due to the fact that if no nominees hit said 90% threshold, only the highest-rated one wins.

In order to determine which of this year’s nominees has the best shot at being approved for a victory, let’s take a closer look at each one. Be sure to visit our predictions center to make your own picks in this and 29 other Creative Arts Emmy categories.

“Dear Mama” (FX)
This five-part series, which takes its title from a well-known 1995 Tupac Shakur song, examines both the shared relationship and separate lives of the rapper and his mother, Afeni Shakur. After the full series debuted on April 21, it was confirmed to be the most-watched unscripted premiere in FX history and renewed public interest in both of its deceased subjects.

“100 Foot Wave” (HBO)
After coming up short in this category last year, this adventure series (which did win a 2022 Emmy for its cinematography) now has a second shot at glory. As before, its newest six-episode season follows a group of tow surfers as they pursue their collective dream of catching a 100-foot wave in Nazaré, Portugal. Unlike the first season, which covers a nearly two-decade period, this one’s events are confined to the 2020s, during which its subjects experience various setbacks brought on by the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Secrets of the Elephants” (National Geographic)
After “Hostile Planet” (2019) and “City So Real” (2021), this is the third Nat Geo program to be put up for this honor. Oscar-winning actress Natalie Portman narrates all four parts of the James Cameron-produced series, which documents the everyday lives of both African and Asian elephants.

“The 1619 Project” (Hulu)
Advertised as “the greatest story never told,” this series is adapted from Nikole Hannah-Jones’s Pulitzer Prize-winning project of the same name. Over the course of six episodes (which are produced by Oprah Winfrey), the journalist guides viewers on a multi-faceted exploration of how centuries of slavery have continually shaped the Black American experience and posits that progress is not possible if said barbaric practice is downplayed or ignored.

“The U.S. and the Holocaust” (PBS)
This three-part docuseries takes a critical look back at the way the United States government responded to the Holocaust and applies its findings to modern American politics, wherein extremists have regrettably gained ground. While driving home the message that not learning from past mistakes leads to historical repetition, the team behind the program make it clear that, especially after 80 years of media innovation, Americans cannot bury their heads in the sand nor blindly support any sort of identity-based supremacy.

So, which program has the best chance of winning a 2023 Emmy for Best Documentary Series? Again, it’s important to keep the documentary group’s affinity for biography and nature shows in mind when mulling the winning potential of “Dear Mama” and “Secrets of the Elephants,” both of which seem right up the members’ alley. Conversely, it makes sense to count out “100 Foot Wave” since its first season failed to meet approval.

As it becomes increasingly rare for history programs to even be nominated for this award, the fact that two broke through this time speaks volumes, especially since neither paints America in the kindness light. Since they’ve gotten this far, the inherent controversy surrounding their deeply important topics shouldn’t affect their chances in the final voting round as they inevitably divert attention from the other nominees. Based on its subject matter and approach, “The U.S. and the Holocaust” is actually safer to predict, but the artistic and topical boldness of “The 1619 Project” could easily prove impossible to ignore.

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions