2023 Emmy Predictions: Best Documentary Filmmaking

For only the second time in the 19-year existence of the Best Documentary Filmmaking Emmy category, HBO (which has clinched the gold 10 times) doesn’t have a horse in the race. The same is true of Netflix, which achieved its 2018 victory for “Strong Island” in HBO’s absence. As a result, there is a great deal of pressure on two of the 2023 entries: “The Accused: Damned or Devoted?,” which could bring PBS its second consecutive and sixth overall filmmaking win, and “The Territory,” which would be the third National Geographic property to prevail here.

The documentary filmmaking award differs from most other Emmys in that it is juried, meaning that after each entry is exclusively reviewed by members of the TV academy’s documentary peer group, it must obtain unanimous support from them in order to officially be deemed worthy of a win. This also means that the four programs currently up for the honor are not competing against each other and that all or none of them could end up triumphing. Since the category record of two same-year wins has been reached only four times, it’s wisest to expect just one annual victor.

In order to determine which of this year’s entries has the best shot at being approved for a win, let’s take a closer look at each one. Be sure to visit our predictions center to make your own picks in this and 29 other Creative Arts Emmy categories.

“The Accused: Damned or Devoted?” (PBS)
Pakistani-Canadian director Mohammed Ali Naqvi’s sixth film focuses on far-right Islamic extremist Khadim Hussain Rizvi, who, prior to his 2020 death, devoted his energy to preserving Pakistan’s blasphemy laws. While following his 2018 campaign to become the country’s prime minister, the documentary also sheds light on Asia Bibi, a Pakistani Christian woman whose blasphemy case was ultimately decided by the nation’s supreme court.

“Aftershock” (Hulu)
Co-directed and produced by Paula Eiselt and Tonya Lewis Lee, this film draws attention to the vitally important subject of Black maternal mortality by focusing on two women, Shamony Gibson and Amber Rose Isaac, whose 2019 and 2020 deaths from childbirth complications could have been prevented. By drawing connections between the victims and their families (who have since come together as activists), the filmmakers make it clear that this is a full-on crisis that all Americans should acknowledge.

“Last Flight Home” (Paramount+)
Writer-director-producer Ondi Timoner teamed with producer David Turner to tell this story of how her father, entrepreneur Eli Timoner, decided to take advantage of California’s End of Life Option Act in early 2021, just after he turned 92 years old. Over the course of nearly two hours, Timoner gives viewers a clear understanding of who her father was and why he had every right to go out on his own terms while highlighting the fact that assisted suicide is still illegal in 40 states.

“The Territory” (National Geographic)
This 85-minute documentary, which was co-produced by Darren Aronofsky, also received Emmy nominations for Alex Pritz’s direction and cinematography (the latter of which is shared with Tangãi Uru-eu-wau-wau). Filmed from 2018 to 2020, it follows young Indigenous Amazonian leader Bitaté Uru-eu-wau-wau, who is forced to defend his people’s rainforest territory when it is threatened by Brazilian farmers.

So, which program has the best chance of winning a 2023 Emmy for Best Documentary Filmmaking? Perhaps the most important thing to keep in mind here is that those who judge these entries do so from a strictly artistic standpoint, with the academy’s rules making it clear that this award is meant to honor “moving and indelible work that elevates the art of documentary filmmaking.” A prospective recipient of this prize cannot simply be entertaining and well-made; it must wow every single jury member by conveying an impactful message in a way that demonstrates singular creativity.

Since several medical awareness films have already succeeded here and each dealt with a different topic, “Aftershock” and “Last Flight Home” pose significant threats, especially with HBO out of the picture. It’s also possible that “The Accused” might join the other religion and Middle East-centric productions that have been honored here, but the jury’s likeliest course of action in this case will be to go for something generally fresh (as they most often do) by choosing “The Territory.”

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